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January 25, 2019 at 02:39 PM EST
David James/Paramount Pictures; Sophie Mutevelian/BBC AMERICA; Matt Kennedy/Marvel Studios

To help you win your office pool, EW got our movie critics (Leah Greenblatt and Chris Nashawaty) and TV critics (Kristen Baldwin and Darren Franich) to share with us (and you!) who they think will win big at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, as well as who they think actually deserves the honor.

Read on below for their assessments (and if you want to make your own picks without seeing their guesses, you can check out the full list of nominees):

Alex Bailey/Fox; Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale — Vice
Bradley Cooper — A Star Is Born
Rami Malek — Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen — Green Book
John David Washington — BlacKkKlansman

Should win: Look, I didn’t particularly like Vice. It actually left a pretty sour taste in my mouth. But Christian Bale’s physical and psychological metamorphosis into the Beltway Prince of Darkness, Dick Cheney, was a brilliant conjuring act.
Will win: I want to say maaaaaaybeeeee Rami Malek…but nah, it’s the actor’s actor, Bale. I think even a lot of people who do what he does for a living don’t know how he does what he does.

 

Graeme Hunter/Sony Pictures Classics; Clay Enos/Warner Bros.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Emily Blunt — Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close — The Wife
Olivia Colman — The Favourite
Lady Gaga — A Star Is Born
Melisssa McCarthy — Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should win: Wouldn’t it be great to upend the narrative and see Olivia Colman’s or Melissa McCarthy’s peers give this to one of them for performances that were so committed, discomfiting, and profoundly different?
Will win: Glenn Close or Lady Gaga all the way — unless the Critics’ Choice split strikes again.

Mary Cybulski/Fox Searchlight; Francois Duhamel/Amazon Studios

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali — Green Book
Timothée Chalamet — Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver — BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott — A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant — Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Should win: It’s hard to name anyone nominated this year who isn’t deserving, but let’s disqualify Mahershala Ali for what was really a lead role. (That helps, right?) And then split the difference between Timothée Chalamet, denied an Oscar nom for his stellar, understated turn in Beautiful Boy — though he’ll undoubtedly have decades more chances to come — and Richard E. Grant, an actor whose work has been unappreciated for years, and who is absolutely perfect as Forgive Me’s deeply flawed barfly.
Will win: Timothée Chalamet’s sympathy vote for missing the Academy nod may tip him here.

Atsushi Nishijima/Fox Searchlight; Matt Kennedy / Annapurna Pictures

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams — Vice
Emily Blunt — A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie — Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone — The Favourite
Rachel Weisz — The Favourite

Should win: Either one of the actresses from The Favourite, Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz, would make me happy, but…
Will win: …will they split the vote? I think that’s more likely than not, unfortunately. So let’s chalk this one up for Amy Adams — she did wonders with a role that wasn’t a lot more than a clichéd Lady Macbeth riff.  

Sanja Bucko/Warner Bros.; Marvel Studios 2018

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians

Should win: There’s only one supernova in Bohemian Rhapsody, and for all its great small moments with Dave Chappelle and Andrew Dice Clay, the impetus of A Star Is Born is literally in the title. But Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians feel like exactly what this category was made for: A truly innovative mix of established talents in unexpected roles (Angela Bassett, Michelle Yeoh); still-ascendant actors proving without a doubt that they deserve to center a movie (Chadwick Boseman, Constance Wu); and entirely new faces (Letitia Wright, Henry Golding) we can’t wait to see more from. For sheer presence alone, we’ll give the edge to Panther.
Will win: Wakanda willing, it’s Black Panther’s to lose.

Paramount Pictures

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Avengers: Infinity War
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Should win: Mission: Impossible — Fallout.
Will win:
Look, if Tom Cruise doesn’t win this thing there is no rhyme or reason to any of this. Black is white, night is day, and so on. The man literally risks his life for our entertainment every time Ethan Hunt accepts an impossible mission. The guy broke his ankle leaping from building to building and then kept on running at full speed so he wouldn’t ruin the take. The dude zipping around Paris making hairy hairpin turns at top speed? That’s him. I see a lot of stunt-packed superhero movies on this list, and I get it. I’m also bored by it. To me, this is a no-brainer: Mission: Impossible — Fallout.

Nicole Wilder/AMC; Ron Batzdorff/NBC

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman — Ozark
Sterling K. Brown — This Is Us
Joseph Fiennes — The Handmaid’s Tale
John Krasinski — Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan
Bob Odenkirk — Better Call Saul

Should win: Bob Odenkirk. Almost a decade after his debut on Breaking Bad, Odenkirk keeps finding new reservoirs of simmering pain and corruption in his crooked lawyer Jimmy McGill.
Will win: Sterling K. BrownThis Is Us has taken some odd detours this year, but general goodwill for Randall (and the beloved actor who brings him to life) should ensure Brown repeats as this category’s winner.

BBC AMERICA/Sid Gentle Films Ltd

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Julia Garner — Ozark
Laura Linney — Ozark
Elizabeth Moss — The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh — Killing Eve
Robin Wright — House of Cards

Should and will win: Sandra Oh. The actress has been on a roll this season, taking home the Critics’ Choice Award and the Golden Globe. No doubt her fellow actors are equally enthralled with her witty and wry performance as the titular Eve.

Jeffrey Neira/FX; NBCUniversal

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
The Americans
Better Call Saul
The Handmaid’s Tale
Ozark
This Is Us

Should win: The Americans. Which show has Keri Russell? Yep, that deserves all the prizes.
Will win: This Is UsOzark has more overall nominations, but we’re calling a back-to-back win for the network phenomenon.

Christopher Saunders/SHOWTIME

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Miniseries or Television Movie
Amy Adams — Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette — Escape at Dannemora
Patricia Clarkson — Sharp Objects
Penélope Cruz — The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Emma Stone — Maniac

Should and will win: Patricia Arquette. The reviews on Dannemora as a whole have been mixed, but everyone — including voters for the Globes and Critics’ Choice awards — agrees that Arquette’s performance as the frumpy, lonely Tilly Mitchell deserves all the trophies.

Jeff Daly/FX

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Miniseries or Television Movie
Antonio Banderas — Genius: Picasso
Darren Criss — The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Hugh Grant — A Very English Scandal
Anthony Hopkins — King Lear
Bill Pullman — The Sinner

Should and will win: Darren Criss. Normally, it would be hard to imagine a relative newbie like the 31-year-old star of The Assassination of Gianni Versace beating out esteemed veterans like Anthony Hopkins or Hugh Grant. But it would be impossible to imagine anything stopping Criss’ well-deserved winning streak for his chilling portrayal of serial killer Andrew Cunanan.

John P. Johnson/HBO; Michele K. Short/HBO

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin — The Kominsky Method
Michael Douglas —The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader — Barry
Tony Shalhoub — The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Henry Winkler — Barry

Should win: Bill Hader. First, he made his assassin into a poignant figure with impossible acting dreams. Then, he managed an even more impressive trick: making his lovable hitman back into an unknowably eerie maybe-psychopath.
Will Win: Henry Winkler. It’s a close race between acclaimed showbiz legends playing acting coaches, and Michael Douglas has all the Golden Globes buzz. But we’ll give the edge to Winkler, whose work in Barry constitutes an impressively spiky, flirty transformation.

Erica Parise/Netflix; Amazon Studios

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein — The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Alison Brie — Glow
Rachel Brosnahan — The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Jane Fonda — Grace and Frankie
Lily Tomlin — Grace and Frankie

Should win: Alison Brie, who continues to give one of the most layered performances as Ruth in GLOW — but her role is more dramedy than straight “ha ha funny,” so…
Will win: …expect Mrs. Maisel’s Rachel Brosnahan to score the Emmy/Globes/SAG trifecta.

Erica Parise/Netflix; Jordin Althaus/HBO

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Atlanta
Barry
Glow
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Should win: Tough call. Atlanta’s magnificent second season had a lovely knack for giving all the characters star-turn moments. But if we’re talking “ensemble,” it’s hard to beat GLOW’s riotous community of wrestling women. Don’t make us choose! GLOW!
Will win: Barry. Among the many things the HBO dramedy does well, it’s one of the best-ever portraits of striving actorly ambition, with a sweet-sardonic look at the plight of struggling Los Angeles performers. What screen actor wouldn’t relate to that?

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