Ahead of the 2020 Academy Awards, airing this Sunday, EW makes its final predictions for who will win — in all 24 categories.

Best Picture

Where once films like The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seemed primed to take the top prize — alas, yet again, this doesn’t look like Quentin Tarantino‘s year — over the past few weeks, 1917 has emerged as a pretty clear frontrunner and Parasite as the underdog challenger. The former has the precursors on its side — a potent combo of DGA, BAFTA, and PGA wins — but the latter has the heart and no shortage of passionate industry support. (We can’t forget that electric SAG upset win.) So we’ll predict with our hearts, too. (Running in a curious third position is Jojo Rabbit, beloved by a good chunk of Academy voters.) —David Canfield

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Director

Whether you’re a cinephile or a casual moviegoer, whether or not you enjoyed 1917, the film remains a spectacle of directorial flourish, from its eye-popping visuals to the heavily choreographed, months-long plotting of its principal cast’s movements throughout the film’s massive, war-torn locations. Its merits as a filmmaking feat exist separately from its quality as a narrative work (though those are present, too), and industry voters will have a tough time not voting for Sam Mendes’ intricate orchestration as a shining beacon of excellence (or, at the very least, organizational mastery), with moving parts working together in a product that represents the industry at its best. —Joey Nolfi

PROJECTED WINNER: Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Best Actress in a Leading Role

As we saw with The Wife last year, Academy members’ feelings about the quality of a film itself — even if the performance at its center is beloved and heavily decorated on the precursor circuit — can ultimately block an acting frontrunner from taking the top prize in the end. Most industry insiders seem to think of Judy as a subpar work with a shining central performance from Renée Zellweger, and there appears to be some late-breaking heat for Bombshells Charlize Theron creeping up the ballots (read our feature with anonymous Oscar voters ), but Zellweger’s comeback narrative appears to hold more weight than Close’s, and she should be in good enough standing amongst her peers to pull off a win in a relatively weak category. —JN

PROJECTED WINNER: Renée Zellweger, Judy
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Best Actor in a Leading Role

The only thing ever standing in Joaquin Phoenix’s way was whether Academy voters would ultimately warm to Joker. They did so, resoundingly, honoring the critically divisive film with a leading 11 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Phoenix’s enormous performance has long been considered Joker‘s chief virtue, thus it’s no surprise he’d be rewarded here accordingly. A shaky Golden Globes speech may have disrupted his path to victory ever-so-slightly, but in subsequent acceptances ranging from humbly gracious to sharply pointed, he’s confirmed to any doubters that now is his time. —DC

PROJECTED WINNER: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Without a little J. Lo drama, where else does this category have to go? Laura Dern has proven unbeatable time and again for her work in Marriage Story, and none of her fellow nominees pose a serious threat to change that. Maybe this particular group of voters were huge fans of Florence Pugh‘s breakout year? Maybe Jojo-mentum is real, pushing Scarlett Johansson over the edge? If you ask us, this is probably the acting category most ripe for a surprise. And that’s saying something, because Dern is way ahead. —DC

PROJECTED WINNER: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

While affection for Joe Pesci proved very evident during the voting period, Brad Pitt’s undeniable likability (on display in full force across an increasingly endearing series of acceptance speeches as he steamrolled the precursors) should be enough to fuel his first Oscar victory in an acting category (he previously won as a producer on 12 Years a Slave). —JN

PROJECTED WINNER: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Final Oscar Predictions
Credit: Wilson Webb/Sony; Andrew Cooper/Columbia; Niko Tavernise/Warner Bros.; Courtesy of NEON CJ Entertainment; Courtesy of LD Entertainment and Roadside Attractions

The Rest of Our Predictions

Best Original Screenplay
Rian Johnson, Knives Out
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Todd Phillips, Scott Silver, Joker
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Best International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

Best Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama

Best Cinematography
Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman
Lawrence Sher, Joker
Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
Roger Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit

Best Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into The Unknown,” Frozen II
“Stand Up,” Harriet

Best Original Score
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Animated Short Film
“Hair Love”

Best Live-Action Short Film
“Nefta Football Club”
“The Neighbors’ Window”
“A Sister”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“In the Absence”
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)”
“Life Overtakes Me”
“St. Louis Superman”
“Walk, Run, Cha-Cha”

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