Andrew Cooper/Columbia; Wilson Webb/Columbia; Courtesy of NEON CJ Entertainment; Niko Tavernise/Warner Bros.

See EW's final Oscar nomination predictions in all 24 categories

January 10, 2020

After months of campaigning ups and downs, endings and beginnings, we’ve finally reached the end of awards season’s first phase: On Monday, nominations for the 2020 Academy Awards will be announced.

EW has been tracking the race regularly since October, making several changes to our prediction lists between then and now. But after much discussion, awards experts David Canfield and Joey Nolfi have made their official choices. Read on below for our complete Oscars nominee final predictions.

Best Picture

Larry Horricks/Fox Searchlight

The Irishman kicked off the precursor circuit with back to back wins at NYFCC and NBR; Parasite went on to dominate the critics’ awards; and both 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood got huge boosts from top Golden Globe wins. These four have been leading the race all season and are in it for the win. All were also nominated for the DGA Award — rarely does a nomination there translate to a Best Picture miss — as was Jojo Rabbit which, along with Joker, has more than held on despite mixed reviews. Our predictions are rounded out by Marriage Story, which despite little love for director Noah Baumbach has been a strong, consistent player all season, and remains a critical favorite, and Little Women. The latter is the shakiest: After SAG’s across-the-board snub and the HFPA’s large dismissal, the Greta Gerwig film’s chances dimmed, but great box office and reviews, plus key nods from the WGA and PGA, lifted its hopes. Fellow PGA nominees Knives Out and Ford v Ferrari — not to mention The Farewell, still carrying that little-indie-that-could banner — aren’t far behind. –David Canfield

Predictions:

1917 (dir. Sam Mendes)

The Irishman (dir. Martin Scorsese)

Jojo Rabbit (dir. Taika Waititi)

Joker (dir. Todd Phillips)

Little Women (dir. Greta Gerwig)

Marriage Story (dir. Noah Baumbach)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (dir. Quentin Tarantino)

Parasite (dir. Bong Joon Ho)

Best Director

François Duhamel/Universal

There’s no such thing as certainty in the Oscar race, and the Academy’s directors branch is an arm known for throwing the most wrenches into the machine (hello, Paweł Pawlikowski, Morten Tyldum, Lenny Abrahamson… you get the point). Despite the months-long power Bong Joon Ho (Parasite), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), and Todd Phillips (Joker) have flexed on the precursor circuit, they’re all vulnerable — as evidenced by the DGA including Jojo Rabbit’s Taika Waititi over Phillips earlier this week. That means a statistically outlying contender like Greta Gerwig (Little Women) has the best shot at finally making her mark on the race in this category, as Oscar voters likely had their gaze trained firmly on backlash against the Golden Globes’ all-male slate of Best Director nominees — which happened well before their voting window opened. While Gerwig seems likeliest to slip in from the periphery, a man-for-man (sorry to the season’s brilliant women) replication of the DGA’s nominees (or, if you want to get really crazy, the inclusion of someone like The Two Popes’ Fernando Meirelles) isn’t out of the question, either. –Joey Nolfi

Predictions:

Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Sam Mendes, 1917

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Actor

Manolo Pavón/Sony Pictures Classics

The controversies surrounding Joker are no laughing matter to the Twitter elite, but the industry (which often operates outside the social media bubble) can’t get enough of Phillips’ antihero masterpiece — or, despite his self-admitted difficulties on set, Joaquin Phoenix’s jaw-dropping performance in the *prepares Beanie Feldstein voice* titular role. Regardless of your feelings about his reported on-set behavior (or prickly disposition while, say, answering questions from reporters after winning a Golden Globe earlier this month), Phoenix’s performance has overwhelmingly dominated on the precursor trail, making him the one to beat. While competitors Adam Driver (Marriage Story) and Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) have been by his side every step of the way, the remaining slots appear open to some late-game swapping. Taron Egerton (Rocketman) has charmed his way through the race’s recent weeks, though Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) has built a slow but steady campaign for his passionately loved performance. The Two Popes’ Jonathan Pryce is also circling the perimeter, though Egerton’s irresistible charm (he’s kissed every baby this race had to offer) and the quality of Banderas’ performance seem poised to edge him out in the end. –JN

Predictions:

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Taron Egerton, Rocketman

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress

David Hindley/LD Entertainment and Roadside Attractions

It’s rare for such a clear frontrunner to march through a season so unchallenged, but, well, that’s where we are with Renée Zellweger, primed to achieve what Judy‘s namesake never could. This category feels a bit unformed otherwise: Scarlett Johnasson will figure into the final five and is, at this point, the only real competition for Zellweger, given Marriage Story‘s overall strength. Charlize Theron has been assumed to be a lock for some time now, and while she should still safely make it in, Bombshell‘s slippage has us a little concerned. Saoirse Ronan missed SAG, along with the rest of Little Women, but has rebounded nicely between the HFPA, BFCA, and BAFTA; hard to see her missing out, giving Little Women‘s momentum, unless the Academy really doesn’t go for the adaptation. As for the last slot? Take your pick between Cynthia Erivo, certainly the leader of the major precursors but on a movie with no heat otherwise; Lupita Nyong’o, who between SAG and a slew of critics’ awards found some love for her Us transformation; and Awkwafina, who won the Globe, but has been snubbed by SAG, BAFTA, and even the Indie Spirits alike. At the end of the day, though, we know this Academy can’t resist a juicy biopic turn. –DC

Predictions:

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Renée Zellweger, Judy

Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

Netflix

Will we have a category consisting entirely of past Oscar winners? Not so fast. Safe to say Brad Pitt (who won for producing as part of team 12 Years a Slave), the frontrunner, will make it in, along with The Irishman‘s one-two punch of Al Pacino and Joe Pesci. Things looked a little dicey for Tom Hanks, but no one’s snubbed him so far and that remarkable Golden Globes speech for lifetime achievement gave him the best last-minute bump anyone could ask for. Anthony Hopkins, Golden Globe- and BAFTA-nominated for The Two Popes, is just around the corner, and more distant is surprise SAG inclusion Jamie Foxx. But we’ve got our eyes on a little Parasite hive assembly: Song Kang-ho is the most recognizable name of the phenomenon’s cast, and he might just get enough votes. –DC

Predictions:

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Al Pacino, The Irishman

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Song Kang-ho, Parasite

Best Supporting Actress

Barbara Nitke/STXfilms

For the first time in her career, Jennifer Lopez stands a serious chance at scoring her an Oscar nomination, but, amid the most open race of the season, no one seems safe from a potential snub. A cold shoulder from BAFTA slightly dulled her momentum, as did current category frontrunner Laura Dern’s victory at the Golden Globes (if Lopez was going to win anywhere, it would have been at the star-focused Globes), but the fact remains that, out of those vying for a nomination, Lopez’s is likely the most widely seen, as Hustlers raked in over $100 million at the domestic box office and finished the calendar as one of the year’s buzziest, must-see titles. One (or two, even) Parasite ladies could sneak into the spotlight here as well, as could The Farewell’s Zhao Shuzhen, who’s been working the circuit hard at every party and every red carpet event. Even likelier (thanks to a much-needed push from BAFTA this week) is a first-time nomination for Florence Pugh, who has surfed the Little Women wave to high praise for her work in the Greta Gerwig-directed drama. –JN

Predictions:

Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Florence Pugh, Little Women

Margot Robbie, Bombshell

The Rest of Our Predictions

Niko Tavernise/Warner Bros.

Best Original Screenplay
–Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
–Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin-won, Parasite
–Rian Johnson, Knives Out
–Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917
–Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Adapted Screenplay
–Greta Gerwig, Little Women
–Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
–Todd Phillips & Scott Silver, Joker
–Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
–Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

Best Animated Film
–Frozen 2
–How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
–I Lost My Body
–Missing Link
–Toy Story 4

Best International Film
–Atlantics
–Beanpole
–Les Miserables
–Pain and Glory
–Parasite

Best Documentary
–American Factory
–Apollo 11
–The Cave
–For Sama
–One Child Nation

Best Cinematography
–Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
–Roger Deakins, 1917
–Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari
–Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman
–Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Original Score
–Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
–Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker
–Thomas Newman, 1917
Randy Newman, Marriage Story
John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Original Song
–“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
–“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
–“Stand Up,” Harriet
–“Spirit,” The Lion King
–“Glasgow,” Wild Rose

Best Editing
–Michael McCusker & Andrew Buckland, Ford v Ferrari
–Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
–Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman
–Lee Smith, 1917
–Yang Jin-mo, Parasite

Sound Editing
–1917
–Avengers: Endgame
–Ford v Ferrari
–Rocketman
–Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Sound Mixing
–1917
–Avengers: Endgame
–Ford v Ferrari
–Rocketman
–Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Production Design
–1917
–The Irishman
–Jojo Rabbit
–Little Women
–Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
–1917
–Bombshell
–Downton Abbey
–Joker
–Judy

Best Costume Design
–Dolemite Is My Name
–The Irishman
–Little Women
–Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
–Rocketman

Best Visual Effects
–1917
–Avengers: Endgame
–The Irishman
–The Lion King
–Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Animated Short
–Dcera (Daughter)
–Hair Love
–Kitbull
–The Physics of Sorrow
–Sister

Best Documentary Short
–Fire in Paradise
–Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
–Life Overtakes Me
–Stay Close
–Walk Run Cha-Cha

Best Live-Action Short
–Brotherhood
–Little Hands
–The Neighbors’ Window
–Refugee
–A Sister

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