The Contenders, 2022 Edition

The writer-director of Licorice Pizza takes us on a journey through his 25 years of filming in his place of inspiration.

By Joshua Rothkopf

JANE CAMPION (THE POWER OF THE DOG)

The return of the talent behind 1993's The Piano, Campion's first feature in 12 years was already cause for celebration. But when Dog turned out to be the strongest movie of her career, it was full-on astonishing.

STEVEN SPIELBERG (WEST SIDE STORY)

All Spielberg had to do was avoid mutilating a classic and he probably would have gotten a pass. His reimagining, though, succeeds beyond all expectations: It's shrewdly updated and progressive, with a real reason for being.

KENNETH BRANAGH (BELFAST)

Branagh was nominated for a directing Oscar at the precocious age of 29 for 1989's Henry V. It would be a tribute to his deep-boned talent and longevity if he made it back to the bracket again this year — and Belfast deserves it.

DENIS VILLENEUVE (DUNE)

The visionary behind the biggest gamble of the year — one that paid off artistically and commercially — should be honored here. It may take the second film for the saga's heft to kick in, but Villeneuve's command is already clear.

REINALDO MARCUS GREEN (KING RICHARD)

JOEL COEN (THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH)

GUILLERMO DEL TORO (NIGHTMARE ALLEY)

Still going strong after seven films, the director and muse discuss the secrets to their 25-year-old relationship — and their latest movie, Parallel Mothers.

By Nick Romano

House of Gucci is not a home without Lady Gaga's killer turn. Here, the pop superstar reveals why she chooses to suffer for cinematic excellence.

By Joey Nolfi

KRISTEN STEWART (SPENCER)

She's been the front-runner for so long, and it's hard to have that target on your back. Still, the movie's psychodramatic spiral is wholly supplied by Stewart, and it's a turn of pure chops, one that transcends imitation. 

NICOLE KIDMAN (BEING THE RICARDOS)

Lucille Ball was a showrunner before her time, and Kidman seems to understand the frictions of the role intuitively. It's a tough-minded piece of work that avoids easy imitation, injecting the screenplay with nuance. 

OLIVIA COLMAN (THE LOST DAUGHTER)

Even if she's not quite the favourite, Colman continues to be one of the most dependably excellent performers at work. The role of an unnatural mother is a tricky one, and only an expert could have pulled it off this well. 

JESSICA CHASTAIN (THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE)

Chastain's total transformation — the mascara, the lipstick, the wigs, the accent, the prosthetics — is the stuff that Oscars are made of. More to her credit, there's also a beating heart underneath it. Her voters are loyal.

TESSA THOMPSON (PASSING)

FRANCES MCDORMAND (THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH)

ALANA HAIM (LICORICE PIZZA)

The two-time Oscar winner pulls double duty in this melancholy sci-fi drama about a dying man who tries to live on by cloning himself.

By Devan Coggan

The star treated us mean and kept us keen with his devastating performance.

By Clarissa Cruz

DENZEL WASHINGTON (THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH)

When it's this actor in this role (one of the most demanding in all of dramaturgy), it's best not to underestimate his odds. Haunted by ghosts and bad decisions, Washington's upward-falling general is quietly dazzling.

JOAQUIN PHOENIX (C'MON C'MON)

So soon? That's how good Phoenix is here. Joker may have seemed inevitable, but the actor's less-stunty turn in Mike Mills' sweet domestic drama is the Phoenix many prefer: vulnerable, shaggy, and utterly charming.

WILL SMITH (KING RICHARD)

Smith has always found a creative way of adding sensitivity to complex firebrands — think of his mighty turn in 2001's Ali. Inspirational biopics often prevail, and the Fresh Prince is long overdue.

ANDREW GARFIELD (TICK, TICK...BOOM!)

Spider-Man unleashed his inner theater geek and the results were more stunning than any CGI'd webslinging: the kind of emotional, open-throated performance that can revise a career. Every Rent fan will be voting for him.

CLIFTON COLLINS JR. (JOCKEY)

PETER DINKLAGE (CYRANO)

SIMON REX (RED ROCKET)

Opposite Will Smith, Ellis' fierce and tender Oracene Williams gives the film its fireworks.

By Derek Lawrence

The actress finds sisterhood (and herself) in the Mediterranean-set drama.

By Leah Greenblatt

Negga goes deep on a haunting scene that blurs the lines between black and white.

By Marcus Jones

RITA MORENO (WEST SIDE STORY)

The narrative is so perfect, it's hard not to root for it to happen, just for the sake of a good cry: Exactly 60 years after her Oscar triumph in the original, Moreno could be back at the podium, shining and showing us the way.

KIRSTEN DUNST (THE POWER OF THE DOG)

Dunst's fans (we're at the front of the line) have been dreaming of a performance like this: all of her vulnerability, sadness, and moxie poured into a nearly silent turn. Exquisitely, she makes the entire cast lean in.

CATRÍONA BALFE (BELFAST)

This is a turn that vibrates in every scene. As the beating heart and Mother Courage of Kenneth Branagh's boyhood memoir, Balfe finds room for the emotional gamut of parenting in a war zone during the Irish Troubles.

GABY HOFFMAN (C'MON C'MON)

Call it the Phoenix Effect (and credit us, please): If enough of the acting bloc falls in love with Joaquin's avuncular central character, they'll no doubt notice his brainy costar — a believable sibling with plenty of fire herself.

CATE BLANCHETT (NIGHTMARE ALLEY)

KATHRYN HUNTER (THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH)

ARIANA DEBOSE (WEST SIDE STORY)

The actor-director and star of The Tender Bar has seen fame from both sides now — and in our February cover story, he talks to Matt Damon (and us) about it.

By Leah Greenblatt

As I Love Lucy's William Frawley, the Oscar winner gives the film some grade-A sass.

By Joshua Rothkopf

TROY KOTSUR (CODA)

If this Sundance crowd-pleaser has one performance that eases it away from the edge of sentimentality, it's Kotsur's father: gruff, bawdy, unbroken. Deaf himself, the actor allows us to laugh through the tougher moments.

CIARÁN HINDS (BELFAST)

It's a good year for dads at the movies: Hinds can seem spooky in films like There Will Be Blood, but his feisty, romantic grandpa in Kenneth Branagh's memory play is loaded with dignity and pure, overwhelming affection.

JARED LETO (HOUSE OF GUCCI)

We have eyes and thus can see that Leto's prosthetics-heavy turn as an untalented fashion scion is not for everyone. But once in a while, the Academy (especially its acting branch) is charmed by such deep dives.

KODI SMIT-MCPHEE (THE POWER OF THE DOG)

A long way from 2009's The Road, Smit-McPhee ain't your fragile moppet anymore. It took a skilled actor to embody Dog's most deceptively unpredictable character, and Smit-McPhee is already racking up critical wins.

DAVID ALVAREZ (WEST SIDE STORY)

JAMIE DORNAN (BELFAST)

JON BERNTHAL (KING RICHARD)

The Radiohead guitarist and film composer talks about his three movies in the Oscar race: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, and Licorice Pizza.

By Joshua Rothkopf

Kim Morgan breaks down a juicy exchange from the screenplay she co-wrote with del Toro.

By Joshua Rothkopf

From the moment Haris Zambarloukos read Kenneth Branagh's script, he pictured it in black and white. Here, he discusses that artistic choice.

By Maureen Lee Lenker

KING RICHARD

Remember Rocky, Chariots of Fire, and Million Dollar Baby? Sports underdog stories are exactly the kind of movies that tend to make it to the top. Toss in the stellar performances of Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis and we might be looking at the winner.

THE POWER OF THE DOG

Arty neo-Westerns have a way of crashing the final bracket — and sometimes prevailing. Jane Campion's triumph becomes richer and richer the more you think about it. And for a film shot in New Zealand, it feels distinctly American, a quality that helps.

WEST SIDE STORY

Audiences may not be coming in droves, but the pedigree here — both of Steven Spielberg's team and the property's legacy as a winner of 10 Oscars — is strong enough to make this one a force. Ariana DeBose's electrifying supporting turn may generate heat for the film's overall chances.

DUNE

The first half of Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi epic delivered on grandeur (if not on conclusions) and will almost certainly dominate the craft categories. Purely in terms of numbers, it will be the one serious contender seen by the most voters, which can't hurt.

DRIVE MY CAR

THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

NIGHTMARE ALLEY