By Kristen BaldwinDarren Franich and Leah Greenblatt
January 02, 2020 at 01:45 PM EST

It’s really anyone’s guess as to who will take home a Golden Globe this coming Sunday, but if you need a little help with your awards ballot, EW’s movie critic Leah Greenblatt and TV critics Kristen Baldwin and Darren Franich have compiled their list of picks.

 

Check out their thoughts on the nominees below and see if you agree.

Netflix

Best Motion Picture — Drama
The Irishman
Joker
The Two Popes
Marriage Story
1917

Should win: If drama is the category, is there a more fitting subject than divorce? Marriage Story is a near-perfect film in its convergence of script, acting, and pure craft — though 1917 would make for a more than worthy alternative if voters are feeling more traditional.

Will win: Joker is too divisive, Marriage Story too quiet, Popes too quirky/small, and 1917 probably too recent in terms of its release. The Irishman, a movie that reads like an epic survey course in Scorseseosity, may be the closest the Globes come to a sure thing. —Leah Greenblatt

Niko Tavernise/Netflix

Best Director — Motion Picture
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should win: A Korean family drama as the most sensational thing to happen to international cinema this year? That’s all on the brilliant Bong Joon-ho. (But let’s not miss a nod to Tarantino, too, for the shambolic, utterly fantastic Once Upon a Time).

Will win: The Irishman is far from Scorsese’s best film, but then again he never even won an Oscar until 2006’s The Departed; this may well be his victory lap for a five decade-plus career.  —LG

Niko Tavernise/Warner Bros.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Should win: Banderas and Driver are both quietly brilliant in their parts; Pryce brought sly layers to his Pope, and it was great to see Bale in something fast, fun, and prosthetic-free again — really, there are no bad options in this category.

Will win: Phoenix lost the weight (50 pounds!) and gained all the crazy for his Joker role; it’s by far the showiest and most HFPA-friendly performance on the roster. —LG

Andrew Cooper/Sony Pictures

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Knives Out
Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Rocketman

Should win: Once, for sure. But Jojo’s Hitler comedy is a loony, tender-hearted achievement, and Knives Out is ridiculous fun. Dolemite was a low-key charmer and Rocketman, well, it’s the kind of biopic that’s made for shows like these.

Will win: Once Upon a Time is the closest thing to a masterpiece in this category; it feels miles ahead of the rest. —LG

David Appleby/Paramount; François Duhamel/Netflix

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should win: DiCaprio is pretty much flawless as the washed-up Hollywood cowboy in Once Upon a Time, and Craig’s drawling detective has approximately 1000 times more fun in Knives Out than any poker-faced Bond has a right to. Griffin Davis is fantastic in Jojo too, but these prizes rarely go to kids.

Will win: The Eddie Murphy comeback narrative feels strong, though Taron could pull a Bohemian Rhapsody redux for his bravura Rocketman turn. —LG

LD Entertainment/Roadside Attractions

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Should win: There are no weak nominees in this category, but Renée’s radical immersion in Judy deserves the prize.

Will win: Somewhere over the rainbow, Zellweger has already given her acceptance speech. —LG

Casi Moss/A24

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette

Should win: De Armas could be a dark horse for Knives Out, which she’s stealthily great in; the other performances feel either too lightweight or like legacy nods for truly underwhelming films.

Will win: Awkwafina is the frontrunner here — a light comedic actress (and, until recently, rapper) showing her stuff in a winning indie that relies entirely on her offbeat charm. —LG

Niko Tavernise/Netflix; Netflix

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should win: This is the Sophie’s choice of categories: Pitt is arguably a co-lead in Once Upon a Time, but it’s one of his finest turns in a three-decade career that so far somehow has no acting Oscars in it; Hanks, too, does everything you hoped he would (and nothing he shouldn’t) with his portrayal of fellow American icon Mr. Rogers in Neighborhood.

Will win: Will Pesci and Pacino cancel each other out? Both are stellar in Irishman, but the edge might go to Pacino’s brighter star. —LG

Barbara Nitke/STXfilms

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Should win: All good women here, with a special nod to Robbie in Bombshell, but this is Lopez’s career-best: Gritty, visually dazzling, and — beneath all the body glitter — gratifyingly human.

Will win: Do not step in front of the chugging J. Lo train; you will be dead on the tracks. —LG

Disney/Pixar; Disney

Best Motion Picture — Animated
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
The Lion King
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Should win: Calling Lion King animation feels like a stretch, though it’s a marvel of CG-live action blending; it’s also emotionally hollow and sort of joyless. The sweet, inconsequential Missing Link is the only one that’s not a sequel or a remake, but that might not help it much here.

Will win: Is Toy Story 4 too existentially weird? If so, make way for Frozen 2. —LG

Des Willie/Netflix

Best Television Series — Drama 
The Crown
The Morning Show
Succession
Big Little Lies
Killing Eve

Should win: Succession. HBO’s soapy saga about a wealthy and toxic media family exploded into the zeitgeist with its darkly comic and superbly acted second season.

Will win: The Crown. With the complete cast turnover in season 3, Netflix’s royal drama has the benefit of being both a previous Globes winner (2017) and a shiny new series, which HFPA voters love. They’re also big fans of The Crown’s second queen, Olivia Colman, who won last year for playing a far more outrageous monarch in The Favourite. —Kristen Baldwin

Hilary B Gayle/Apple

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Drama
Jennifer AnistonThe Morning Show
Olivia ColmanThe Crown
Jodie ComerKilling Eve
Nicole KidmanBig Little Lies
Reese WitherspoonThe Morning Show

Should and will win: Jennifer Aniston. No matter what you thought of The Morning Show (and I did not hate it), Aniston’s performance as the righteously rageful TV host Alex Levy is an undeniable triumph. The former Friends star is exactly the kind of TV royalty that Globes voters adore, and we’re sure Apple TV+ spared no expense in their awards campaign.  —KB

Peter Kramer/HBO

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Drama
Brian CoxSuccession
Tobias MenziesThe Crown
Billy PorterPose
Kit HaringtonGame of Thrones
Rami MalekMr. Robot

Should and will win: Brian Cox. We at EW have nothing but love for Pose star Billy Porter, but it’s time for the gold rush to begin for Succession’s terrifyingly intense leading man, who was snubbed by the Emmys. —KB

Pari Dukovic/FX

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Helen MirrenCatherine the Great
Michelle WilliamsFosse/Verdon
Merritt WeverUnbelievable
Kaitlyn DeverUnbelievable
Joey King, The Act

Should win: Merritt Wever. The quiet power of Wever’s turn as Detective Karen Duvall is simply astounding. Plus, Williams already won her well-deserved Emmy. How about we spread the love?

Will win: Michelle Williams. A movie star delivering a tour-de-force performance as a Broadway star in a highly pedigreed limited series? The Globes voters won’t be able to resist. —KB

Des Willie/Netflix

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Toni ColetteUnbelievable
Meryl StreepBig Little Lies
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Patricia Arquette, The Act
Emily Watson, Chernobyl

Should and will win: Helena Bonham Carter. No one had more fun onscreen in 2019 than Bonham Carter, who vividly brought Princess Margaret’s tempestuous, booze-filled charm and her aching disappointment to life. —KB

Steve Schofield/Amazon Studios

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Alan ArkinThe Kominsky Method
Kieran CulkinSuccession
Henry WinklerBarry
Andrew Scott, Fleabag
Stellan Skarsgard, Chernobyl

Should and will win: Andrew Scott. The actor’s sexy, funny, sweet, and terribly sad performance launched 1,000 #HotPriest memes, but was inexplicably not included in the Emmys’ wave of Fleabag love. The Globes will likely be very happy to right that wrong — and unlike Scott, Kieran Culkin’s show will continue past season 2, so the also-deserving actor will have more chances to win. —KB

Steve Schofield/Amazon Prime Video

Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy 
Barry
The Politician
Fleabag
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Should and will win: Fleabag. There’s a reason why Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s Fleabag has earned so many accolades. Season 2 of the confessional sexcom turned into a heart-exploding love story, balancing unrepressed passion with deeply spiritual inquisition. It’s also an Amazon series (the streamer has a good history in this category) and Waller-Bridge has the kind of buzzy glamour the Hollywood Foreign Press Association famously adores. —Darren Franich

SHOWTIME

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy 
Rachel BrosnahanThe Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida
Christina ApplegateDead to Me
Natasha LyonneRussian Doll
Phoebe Waller-BridgeFleabag

Should win: Waller-Bridge writes, produces, and gives an intensely intimate and scathingly sharp tragicomic performance. The hype is real!

Will win: My Globe-y sense is tingling! Waller-Bridge and Lyonne had the buzzier critical hits, and Applegate is an HFPA favorite with nominations stretching back to her Jesse days. And yet, a sudden premonition has struck me like lightning, and I expect Dunst’s skewed work on her ‘90s satire will earn her a prize — and lead viewers to Google “What is On Becoming a God in Central Florida”? —DF

Isabella Vosmikova/HBO

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Michael DouglasThe Kominsky Method
Bill HaderBarry
Ben Platt, The Politician
Paul Rudd, Living With Yourself
Ramy Youssef, Ramy

Should win: Huzzah to the HFPA for nominating breakout comedy voice Ramy Youssef. His faintly autobiographical Ramy is a comic delight, and he deserves all the prizes for his subtle, sweet lead role.

Will win: Bill Hader missed out on a Globe last year when Douglas led the unexpected Kominsky charge. Expect him to take home the trophy for his brilliant work as an assassin turned actor. —DF

FX

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television 
The Loudest Voice
Chernobyl
Unbelievable
Fosse/Verdon
Catch-22

Should win: Chernobyl features bitter scientists struggling through radioactive disaster and totalitarian reality-warps. Creator-writer Craig Mazin’s fascinating five-parter wrings brilliantly corrosive entertainment out of the true-life terror, though, and already has that Limited Series Emmy on the mantel.

Will win: …whereas meta-levels of star power shine through Fosse/Verdon, a miniseries about showbiz royalty starring Oscar favorites and executive produced by Lin-Manuel Miranda. —DF

JoJo Whilden/SHOWTIME

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Sam RockwellFosse/Verdon
Russell CroweThe Loudest Voice
Jared HarrisChernobyl
Christopher AbbottCatch-22
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Spy

Should win: Jared Harris sometimes seems pigeonholed as the Guy Slowly Dying In Period Pieces, but his stunningly cerebral turn as Valery Legasov grounds Chernobyl in sensitive humanity and unexpected courage.

Will win: The Loudest Voice sometimes came off like an incredibly well-intentioned SNL sketch, and that won’t stop HFPA voters from honoring Crowe’s over-the-top impression of the late Fox News monstro-chief Roger Ailes. —DF

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