Okay, okay….so maybe not all of my dreams and wishes for the Golden Globe nominations came true. (Ahem, where’s my Big Sick and Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele and Jake Gyllenhaal nominations at?) But as we get ready for Sunday night’s ceremony — which is secretly more fun than the Oscars because everyone drinks more and cares less — here’s where we will hazard a guess as to how things are going to go down in the major film categories. (And click here for our predictions in the TV ones.)
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predictive winner: This category is murderously rough, with everyone so deserving. It’s a really tight race between Sam Rockwell (so likable! such a good dancer!) and veteran Willem Dafoe. Who knows with the sneaky Hollywood Foreign Press Association — they could shake things up just enough that Christopher Plummer will win for his amazing turn in Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World. But with money on the line we’re betting on Sam Rockwell.
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Predictive Winner: A neck-and-neck race between two wonderful veteran performers in Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. This one is so close! So close! Can’t we please have a tie? No? In that case I’ll go for Allison Janney (and that bird!) for I, Tonya.
Best Actor in a Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel, Esq
Predictive winner: One could make an argument that there’s no man in the world more well-liked than Tom Hanks; or that Daniel Day-Lewis — a.k.a. the greatest actor of all time — deserves a proper sendoff into his supposed retirement; or that the mangenue of the moment, Timothée Chalamet, could clinch this. But I am sticking with Gary Oldman and his amazing transformation into Winston Churchill to clinch the win.
Best Actress in a Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Predictive winner: Remember Meryl Streep‘s powerful speech last year at the Golden Globes? Yes, she was incredible in The Post, but don’t you think the HFPA might also want to give her another chance to do the same?
Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical
Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Predictive winner: To my mind, it’s hard to not just give Hugh Jackman — the hardest and nicest working man in show business — anything that he wants. Circus movie, you say? You got it! However, I do think in the end it will be James Franco, who managed to direct and star in one of the funniest movies of the year, who will be making what will surely be a very weird acceptance speech.
Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seekers
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Predictive winner: I will be very surprised (and a little dismayed) if anyone but the lovely Saorise Ronan walks away with this one.
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Predictive winner: A write-in campaign for either Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele! No? In that case I think this one will probably come down to either the cool elegance of Nolan’s direction in Dunkirk or the wonderfully romantic heart beating at the center of The Shape of Water courtesy of Guillermo del Toro. In a pinch I think love will win the day, so let’s go with del Toro.
Best Picture, Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing. Missouri
The Shape of Water
Predictive winner: In these troubled times, I choose The Shape of Water with its story of love among outsiders will prevail.
Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman
Predictive winner: They may have denied its writer and director any recognition and yet I still think it’s going to be Lady Bird all the way.