Best Animated Feature
Will and should win: Toy Story 3
Anyone who bets otherwise is insane, pure and simple.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: The Kids Are All Right
With more overall support, Speech will take this prize over Writers Guild winner Inception. But Kids deserves props for taking a familiar film genre — the intimate family drama — and turning it on its ear.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will and should win: The Social Network
Aaron Sorkin’s masterful screenplay isn’t just talky, it’s nothing short of brilliant. And he’s one of the biggest locks of the night.
Will win: 127 Hours (”If I Rise”).
Should win: Country Strong (”Coming Home”)
Let’s face it: It wasn’t a great year in this category. The Dido-performed ”If I Rise” is probably the hippest choice and has a good shot of topping Toy Story 3‘s ”We Belong Together” by Randy Newman. But ”Coming Home” is really the only tune that you keep humming days after hearing it.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should win: Amy Adams, The Fighter
The safe money is definitely still on Melissa Leo, but an upset certainly seems possible. The impressively precocious Steinfeld would be a fine choice, but I’d love to see the award go to Adams for her memorable and relatable bartender.
Best Supporting Actor
Will and should win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Barring a Geoffrey Rush upset, it’s looking like we’ll have the first U.K. mini-sweep of the male acting categories since 1965, when Rex Harrison and Peter Ustinov won.
Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should win: Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Are you sick of my praising Blue Valentine yet? Natalie Portman certainly delivered a fantastically creepy performance, but it’s Williams whom I still can’t shake, nine months after first seeing her devastating film.
Will and should win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
A respected actor at the top of his game scoring his second consecutive Best Actor nomination after starring in the most nominated film of the year? How can he lose?
Will and should win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Usually the DGA winner also takes the Oscar, which bodes well for The King’s Speech filmmaker Tom Hooper. But with such strong contenders in the mix, I’m really feeling a split this year.
Will and should win: The King’s Speech
Only six other times has a movie won the hat trick of Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and SAG awards. And in five of those cases, it went on to pick up Best Picture as well. I personally love Speech and The Social Network equally, but I’m selfishly rooting for Speech so that I don’t look dumb by sticking with it all this time!