Oscars 2010: 25 Longshots We Love

An Education

The British coming-of-age drama boasts a dream cast (including Emma Thompson, Sally Hawkins, and Peter Sarsgaard) and a wonderful screenplay by novelist Nick Hornby. It’s a sure bet in the Best Actress (Carey Mulligan) and Best Supporting Actor (Alfred Molina) categories but may lack the overall appeal to make the cut for Best Picture.

It’s Complicated

The Academy rarely goes for comedy in the biggest races. But with 10 slots this year, Nancy Meyers’ grown-up love story featuring the triumvirate of Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin, and Steve Martin could sneak in.

A Single Man

Naysayers will carp that fashion designer Tom Ford’s filmmaking debut is ”too gay” to score a Best Picture nomination. But its gorgeous visuals and remarkable performances from Colin Firth and Julianne Moore will significantly raise its profile.

Star Trek

This year’s super-sized Best Picture race opens the door for a bona fide blockbuster to join the biopics and war dramas that usually catch the Academy’s eye. District 9 and The Hangover are other possibilities, but J.J. Abrams’ critically-acclaimed sci-fi reboot ticks the most Oscar boxes.

Where the Wild Things Are

Spike Jonze’s quirky, spare retelling of Maurice Sendak’s classic children’s book earned some rapturous reviews but left many viewers scratching their heads. If the Academy is feeling adventurous, they could reward Jonze’s vision. The question is whether they’re on board with it.

Paul Bettany, Creation

The British character actor stars with his real-life wife, Jennifer Connelly, in this biographical drama about controversial author-scientist Charles Darwin. Politics aside, it’s a heartbreaking performance that will tug at the heartstrings of any voter who happens to be a parent.

Ben Foster, The Messenger

The 29-year-old TV and movie vet (Six Feet Under, X-Men: The Last Stand) tackles the most challenging role of his career as a soldier just back from Iraq whose new duty is with the Army’s Casualty Notification service. It’s a raw turn from an impressive young actor.

Viggo Mortensen, The Road

It’s not as showy as his nominated performance in Eastern Promises, but Mortensen’s turn as a dad protecting his son in a post-apocalyptic world anchors a tough film to watch with relatable emotion.

Clive Owen, The Boys Are Back

Owen, a past supporting-actor nominee for Closer, seemed a strong contender going into the Toronto film festival. But lukewarm reviews for the film seem to have overshadowed his subtle performance as a single father.

Michael Sheen, The Damned United

After playing Tony Blair in The Queen and David Frost in Frost/Nixon, Sheen brilliantly embodies another British celebrity — this time it’s cocky football coach Brian Clough. The challenge will be getting the Academy to care about this very British story.

Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

She stole scenes from Anne Hathaway in The Devil Wears Prada. Now Blunt carries her own film, playing a teenage Queen Victoria with convincing forthrightness. If enough voters see her work, she’ll be a real contender.

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

In perhaps her most fiery performance, Bullock plays Leigh Anne Touhy, a Tennessee mother who adopts a homeless teenager and encourages him to become a football star. While the Academy might not cotton to the sentimental film, Bullock is a good bet for a Golden Globe nod for Best Actress in a Drama.

Michelle Monaghan, Trucker

Monaghan shows never-before-seen depth as a truck-driving mom in the drama that premiered at last year’s Tribeca Film Festival. The film is polarizing, but her performance is unexpectedly moving.

Hilary Swank, Amelia

Nearly universally bad reviews for the film have put a serious damper on Swank’s prospects. But let’s not forget that another Academy favorite, Cate Blanchett, managed a nod despite the critical negativity directed at Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Robin Wright, The Private Lives of Pippa Lee

Wright’s titular turn as an emotionally fragile trophy wife in director Rebecca Miller’s drama is perhaps the most subtle contender of the year. It’s a typically strong showing from Wright, but subtle rarely does the trick at the Oscars.

George Clooney, The Men Who Stare At Goats

For every critic who found the political comedy appealing, there’s another who couldn’t stand it. But Clooney remains the film’s only real shot at a nomination thanks to his over-the-top goofiness.

Zach Galifiniakis, The Hangover

Yes, it could happen! The supporting-actor race is often where the Academy shows its funnier side, and Galifianakis’ star-making turn as a socially awkward bachelor-party attendee is certainly the most unforgettable comedic performance of the year.

Brian Geraghty, The Hurt Locker

It was Geraghty’s costar Anthony Mackie who scored a supporting-male Spirit Award nod last year, but Geraghty was equally impressive as a soldier preoccupied with losing his life while on duty.

Peter Sarsgaard, An Education

Sarsgaard’s castmate Alfred Molina has the showier monologues, but Sarsgaard, playing a thirtysomething who romances a British schoolgirl, tackles arguably the most difficult role in the film. Bonus points for the British accent.

Paul Schneider, Bright Star

He’s quite unlikable as poet John Keats’ overprotective best friend, but Schneider creates a memorable villain in Jane Campion’s period drama. Strong buzz for his costar Abbie Cornish will only help his case.

Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works

Clarkson, one of our best character actresses, is a past nominee in this category for Pieces of April. And as a feisty Southern belle, she could join the legion of women who landed in this race after costarring in a Woody Allen film.

Mélanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

Christoph Waltz is a supporting-actor lock from Quentin Tarantino’s latest opus. But Laurent, so fierce as the film’s true heroine, cannot be counted out either.

Samantha Morton, The Messenger

The film, costarring Ben Foster and Woody Harrelson, is one of the best-acted indies of year. And Morton, a two-time past nominee (for Sweet & Lowdown and In America), delivers another impressively understated performance as a new war widow.

Paula Patton, Precious

Buzz-wise, Patton has taken a backseat to her castmates Mo’Nique and Mariah Carey. But if Precious becomes a top contender, Patton’s angelic schoolteacher could get swept along for the ride.

Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

Weisz won this category with The Constant Gardener. Now she returns with a small but important role in The Lovely Bones, playing the mother of a teenage murder victim. Never underestimate what Weisz can accomplish with limited screen time.

More 2009 Oscars coverage:
Read Dave Karger’s OscarWatch blog
Oscar race: Dave Karger IDs this year’s front runners