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  3. Golden Globes '13: Who Will/Should Win (Movies)

Golden Globes '13: Who Will/Should Win (Movies)

Anthony Breznican on names he expects we'll hear -- and the ones he'd like to hear -- on Sunday night
By Anthony Breznican Updated January 11, 2013 at 05:00 PM EST
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Best Picture, Drama

Will and Should Win: Lincoln The tricky thing about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is that they tend to be wooed by celebrity and prestige.Â…
Credit: David James

Will and Should Win: Lincoln

The tricky thing about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is that they tend to be wooed by celebrity and prestige. The people and films they recognize tend to bestow honor upon the award rather than the other way around, and this year — with the earlier Oscar nominations deadline sapping the Globes of influence, the ceremony is really struggling for relevance. I suspect Lincoln, which has emerged as the clear award season frontrunner, will get the top drama prize because it would reflect well on the tastes of the HFPA. It also deserves the recognition, so win-win.

WINNER: Argo

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Best Actor, Drama

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Should Win: John Hawkes, The Sessions Daniel Day-Lewis is this season's surest sure thing, and the Globes voters will notÂ…
Credit: David James

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Should Win: John Hawkes, The Sessions

Daniel Day-Lewis is this season's surest sure thing, and the Globes voters will not want to seem out of touch by voting for anyone else. But if they truly wanted to distinguish themselves from the Oscars, instead of merely riding that more prestigious show's coattails, they would give the honor to John Hawkes for his performance in The Sessions as a charming disabled man, looking for love before life passes him by. The fact that he was snubbed by the Academy for a nomination would make the rebellion all the more delicious.

WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

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Best Actress, Drama

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty Should Win: Naomi Watts, The Impossible Jessica Chastain's relentless performance as a CIA targeting analyst hunting Osama binÂ…
Credit: Jonathan Olley; Jose Haro

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Jessica Chastain's relentless performance as a CIA targeting analyst hunting Osama bin Laden is a harrowing bit of business, and the fact that the upbeat, delicate actress could convey such fearsomeness is a testament to her formidable skills as a performer. I suspect the Globes will recognize her for it, but the outside-the-box choice would be Naomi Watts for The Impossible, another underdog who could truly benefit from the recognition since many voters have been hesitant about the movie, fearing the story of a family caught up in the 2004 tsunami will be too agonizing to endure. Most people who finally see Watts' work come away impressed, and a Globes win for her would help create a real question about who might claim the Best Actress Oscar.

WINNER: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

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Best Picture, Comedy or Musical

Will Win: Les Misérables Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook Les Misérables is the epic in this race, and the gravity of it may draw inÂ…
Credit: James Fisher; JoJo Whilden

Will Win: Les Misérables
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook

Les Misérables is the epic in this race, and the gravity of it may draw in the HFPA voters, who tend to be starstruck as it is. But reviews haven't been kind to the movie, and director Tom Hooper's snub by the Academy is a sign of weak support. If the Globes wanted to enhance their cred, they would vote for Silver Linings Playbook, which scored a nomination in each of the acting categories, as well as nods for David O. Russell for directing and adapted screenplay. The HFPA also tends to bow to the whim of Harvey Weinstein, who released Silver Linings, so honoring this movie won't be hard.

WINNER: Les Misérables

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Best Actor, Comedy or Musical

Will Win: Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables Should Win: Jack Black, Bernie Have I indicated that the Globes voters, who threw nominations to Johnny Depp andÂ…
Credit: Van Redin

Will Win: Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Should Win: Jack Black, Bernie

Have I indicated that the Globes voters, who threw nominations to Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie for the much-maligned romantic thriller farce The Tourist, tend to be starstruck? Well, they are, and Hugh Jackman is one of those people who could charm the ballots right out of their hands. He was also phenomenal in Les Misérables, but if the Globes wanted to be daring they would look toward Jack Black's simmering comedic performance in Bernie, as a Mr. Nice Guy who does unspeakable things.

WINNER: Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

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Best Actress, Comedy or Musical

Will and Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook By splitting the categories into comedy/musical and drama, the Globes take a lot of the AcademyÂ…
Credit: JoJo Whilden

Will and Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

By splitting the categories into comedy/musical and drama, the Globes take a lot of the Academy rivals out of competition with each other. Lawrence has a real shot at best actress against Zero Dark Thirty's Jessica Chastain and The Impossible's Naomi Watts. On her own here, she is most likely unstoppable.

WINNER: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

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Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln The HFPA spends a lot of the year being wined and dined byÂ…
Credit: Andrew Cooper

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

The HFPA spends a lot of the year being wined and dined by studios, filmmakers, and actors who factor the Globes telecast into their Oscar campaigns. Since the success of that show depends in part on celebrity screen time, Globes voters like to cast their ballots for very famous faces. Leonardo DiCaprio may have the edge in that regard. Tommy Lee Jones? He gave a hell of a performance, but it's hard to imagine him making nice with the Hollywood Foreign Press over a lunch buffet.

WINNER: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

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Best Supporting Actress

Will and Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables Even people who don't like Les Misérables come away admiring Hathaway's performance as the doomed Fantine. TheÂ…
Credit: Universal Pictures

Will and Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Even people who don't like Les Misérables come away admiring Hathaway's performance as the doomed Fantine. The Globes voters wouldn't dare risk looking out of touch by voting for anyone else, even if Sally Field's performance in Lincoln has gained momentum recently.

WINNER: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

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Best Director

Will Win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Should Win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi Lincoln has been Steven Spielberg's passion project for more than a decade, andÂ…
Credit: David James; Jake Netter

Will Win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Should Win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Lincoln has been Steven Spielberg's passion project for more than a decade, and his success in pulling off a complicated historical/political drama is rightly being recognized as one of the great filmmaking feats of 2012. He's also as famous as a director can get. Ang Lee also managed an impressive directorial accomplishment with Life of Pi, and that movie scored the second most Oscar nominations behind Lincoln, despite not having any acting nods. Both are formidable Oscar contenders, and if the Globes wanted to mix things up, they'd go with the less obvious choice.

WINNER: Ben Affleck, Argo

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Best Animated Feature

Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph Should Win: Frankenweenie This category feels like a toss-up. Wreck-It Ralph was a mainstream success, but Frankenweenie has more star powerÂ…
Credit: Disney

Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Should Win: Frankenweenie

This category feels like a toss-up. Wreck-It Ralph was a mainstream success, but Frankenweenie has more star power behind it thanks to Tim Burton. Box-office flop Frankenweenie is certainly the underdog (no pun intended) and feels like the edgier choice. Either one would make me happy, though.

WINNER: Brave

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Best Foreign Language Film

Will and Should Win: Amour Michael Haneke's somber and heartbreaking look at an aging couple saying goodbye at the end of their lives has receivedÂ…
Credit: Darius Khondji

Will and Should Win: Amour

Michael Haneke's somber and heartbreaking look at an aging couple saying goodbye at the end of their lives has received so much acclaim — not to mention Best Director, Picture, and Original Screenplay Oscar nominations — that it's hard to imagine it losing.

WINNER: Amour

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Best Screenplay

Will and Should Win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln Kushner's accomplishment is authenticity — all of the period costumes and production design would be meaningless if theÂ…
Credit: David James

Will and Should Win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln

Kushner's accomplishment is authenticity — all of the period costumes and production design would be meaningless if the words these characters were saying didn't resonate while also feeling true to the passion and language of the period.

WINNER: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

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Best Original Song

Will and Should Win: Adele, ''Skyfall'' She's the favorite to win the Oscar, too. Done deal. WINNER: Adele, ''Skyfall''

Will and Should Win: Adele, ''Skyfall''

She's the favorite to win the Oscar, too. Done deal.

WINNER: Adele, ''Skyfall''

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Best Score

Will Win: John Williams, Lincoln Should Win: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi Both are magnificent works, though this is another one of those non-celebrity categoriesÂ…
Credit: Frazer Harrison, Michael Buckner/Getty Images

Will Win: John Williams, Lincoln
Should Win: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi

Both are magnificent works, though this is another one of those non-celebrity categories that feels like it gets short shrift at the Globes. John Williams' Lincoln score is notable for its restraint, while Danna's music in Life of Pi has to convey a lot of the unspoken emotion of that harrowing story. Each one is worthy in his own way.

WINNER: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi

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    1 of 14 Best Picture, Drama
    2 of 14 Best Actor, Drama
    3 of 14 Best Actress, Drama
    4 of 14 Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
    5 of 14 Best Actor, Comedy or Musical
    6 of 14 Best Actress, Comedy or Musical
    7 of 14 Best Supporting Actor
    8 of 14 Best Supporting Actress
    9 of 14 Best Director
    10 of 14 Best Animated Feature
    11 of 14 Best Foreign Language Film
    12 of 14 Best Screenplay
    13 of 14 Best Original Song
    14 of 14 Best Score

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