Best Picture, Drama
Will Win: Gravity
Possible Surprise: 12 Years a Slave
Some members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association have been fairly vocal about not being swayed by 12 Years a Slave. On the other hand, they really liked Rush — as evidenced by its unlikely nomination here. So while some voters will be split in those directions, the consensus choice is most likely Gravity.
WINNER: 12 Years a Slave
Best Picture, Musical or Comedy
Will Win: American Hustle
Possible Surprise: Nebraska
American Hustle feels like a lock, but this group tends to love Alexander Payne so if they’re feeling contrarian his black-and-white father/son story Nebraska is the best chance at an upset. The Wolf of Wall Street has been polarizing, but a win for it also would make headlines. And the HFPA definitely likes attention.
WINNER: American Hustle
Will Win: David O. Russell, American Hustle
Possible Surprise: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
This is a real race. American Hustle is the popular choice right now among Hollywood awards voters from many different groups. The sultry, swinging ’70s sting saga has infatuated almost everyone. Count on Russell to ride that momentum to victory — although Cuarón certainly could get support given the remarkable technical achievement he had to pull off for Gravity.
WINNER: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Best Actor, Drama
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Possible Surprise: Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Again, if the HFPA had more enthusiasm for 12 Years a Slave, Chiwetel Ejiofor would be more likely. But the Globes tend to be star-struck, and that history suggests they’ll go for the handsome star who transformed himself into a withering, ailing man: McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. The handsome star who carries his entire movie solo as a man trying to survive while lost at sea (Redford) will also do.
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress, Drama
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Possible Surprise: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
The HFPA loves it some Sandy Bullock, but those past allegiances may not be enough to make them overlook another performance about being brought down to Earth: Blanchett’s brittle, bitter turn as the privileged wife of a Wall Street fraud who learns the hard way that the world owes her nothing.
WINNER Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Possible Surprise: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Dern ain’t no pretty boy, but the HFPA does love to pay tribute to Hollywood history, and this longtime scene-stealer’s legacy certainly adds enthusiasm to his career-best work in Nebraska. But?never underestimate the Globes’ desire to put a young, heartthrob movie star on the stage. That could open the door for DiCaprio — or a longer shot: Christian Bale, skinny and handsome again after American Hustle.
WINNER: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Possible Surprise: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
It all depends on how deep the HFPA is in the spell of American Hustle — and whether Harvey Weinstein can snap them out of it. Streep’s chances have been falling fast — with many Academy voters disappointed in the big screen adaptation of the Pulitzer-winning play. If distributor Weinstein twists enough arms, he might be able to force Streep to a much-needed victory — provided she ends up among the Oscar nominees on Thursday.
WINNER: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Possible Surprise: Daniel Brühl, Rush
There’s no denying that Leto is the Oscar frontrunner for his charisma-and-a-half transgender prostitute in Dallas Buyers Club, and the Globes will probably follow right along. The only chance of a twist would be if the HFPA decided to channel its enthusiasm for Rush into this race, which might help Brühl eke out a victory.
WINNER: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Possible Surprise: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
I don’t think there is much chance the Globes can resist putting the adorably outspoken Jennifer Lawrence behind the microphone. Her boozy, ”science oven”-scorching housewife was one of the highlights of American Hustle — a movie full of colorful characters. Lupita Nyong’o’s more subtle, aching performance as a tormented field slave is unforgettable, and could win out if the Globes don’t give in to their star-struck tendencies.
WINNER: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Frozen
Possible Surprise: The Croods
Frozen is sweeping the country, in pretty much every way — including the weather. It’s the odds-on favorite, but the group has affinity for DreamWorks, too. This is The Croods‘ best shot at making it a competitive race.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Possible Surprise: The Great Beauty
Both are acclaimed, with Blue is the Warmest Color claiming the Palme d’Or at last year’s Cannes Film Festival. But The Great Beauty is — perhaps appropriately, given its title — one of the most gorgeous films of the year. Its story of an aging bon vivant in Rome, facing his own mortality amongst the ruins, is the toughest competition for the offbeat lesbian love story.
WINNER: The Great Beauty
Will Win: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Possible Surprise: Spike Jonze, Her
Probably the most challenging of all the Globe categories — any one of the five nominees could be a winner. The race is made even tougher considering they don’t divide screenplays into separate groups for original and adapted. The power of Ridley’s 12 Years a Slave can’t be denied, but the originality of Her is equally unforgettable.
WINNER: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Original Song
Will Win: ”Ordinary Day,” U2 (from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Possible Surprise: ”Let It Go,” Idina Menzel (from Frozen)
Are you kidding? There’s no way the Globes resists a chance to get Bono and The Edge on the show. ”Let It Go” seems like the next likely runner-up, but the HFPA could also be tempted by Justin Timberlake and T Bone Burnett’s ”Please Mr. Kennedy” from Inside Llewyn Davis.
WINNER: ”Ordinary Day,” U2 (from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Best Original Score
Will Win: Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave
Possible Surprise: Steven Price, Gravity
Both worthy competitors, but I give the edge to Zimmer’s sometimes jarring and anachronistic score for Slave, which provided some necessary jolts and chills — as opposed to the more authentic, folksy music from the Antebellum era that we could have gotten. The ethereal thrum of Price’s score for Gravity has an equal shot, and benefits from the absence of other sounds in the space survival drama — allowing it to take center stage in the viewer’s mind.
WINNER: Alex Ebert, All Is Lost