The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations were announced last week, and they gave Oscar prognosticators plenty to chew on.

That’s because in their 25-year history, the SAG Awards have emerged as a pretty strong predictor of sorts for the Oscars. For instance, since the SAG Awards’ first showing in 1995, 18 lead actresses have won both the SAG Award and the corresponding Oscar. For leading men, that number jumps to 20. And of course there’s the SAG Best Ensemble nod: Only three films in SAG history have not been nominated for Best Ensemble and still won Best Picture at the Oscars. (Although it’s important to note that two of those instances — last year’s Green Book and Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water in 2017 — came within the last two years, so it’s possible the stat is not as important as it once was, although it’s too soon to tell).

Just Mercy / The Two Popes
Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures; Peter Mountain/Netflix

So, with the SAG Award nominees and all the shocks and snubs therein, what is the state of the Oscar race heading into January? On this week’s edition of The Awardist podcast, EW’s Shana Naomi Krochmal and David Canfield take inventory of the awards race as it currently stands, and David gives his predictions in the big Oscar categories based on the critics’ groups, Golden Globes, SAGs, and other awards voting bodies that have weighed in so far.

Also this week, EW’s Leah Greenblatt sits down with Jonathan Pryce, the Golden Globe-nominated star of The Two Popes, and Derek Lawrence interviews Jamie Foxx, a SAG Best Supporting Actor nominee for Just Mercy.

Listen to the full discussion below, or on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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