Each year, the Film Independent Spirit Awards honor the achievements in movies made for around $20 million. And although the group’s picks aren’t usually a great bellwether of eventual success at the Oscars, they can tell us some interesting things about the state of the current awards race.

For example, 2017’s Moonlight, 2016’s Spotlight, 2015’s Birdman, and 2014’s 12 Years A Slave won Best Feature at the Spirit Awards before going on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, in addition to landing other major nominations. On the acting front, last year’s Indie Spirit contenders Glenn Close (The Wife), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) went on to win or be nominated for acting Oscars as well.

The Lighthouse / Marriage Story / Honey Boy
Credit: A24; Wilson Webb/Netflix; Amazon Studios

However, last year at the Indie Spirit Awards, none of the Best Feature nominees went on to receive a Best Picture nod at the Oscars. So, what does it all mean?

On the latest episode of EW’s The Awardist podcast, cohosts Shana Naomi Krochmal and David Canfield analyze the recently announced crop of Indie Spirit Awards nominees, including who got the biggest boosts, who missed out, and which major awards players this year weren’t even eligible for the Indie Spirits in the first place. Plus, we take a look at the film-related Grammy nominations and dissect the awards chances of two late-breaking films: 1917 and Richard Jewell.

This week, EW’s Clark Collis also talks with Indie Spirit Awards nominee Robert Pattinson about his film The Lighthouse, and Shana and David make more bold picks for the awards season.

Listen to the full discussion below, or on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Richard Jewell (2019 Movie)
Paul Walter Hauser stars as the 1996 Centennial Olympic Park bombing suspect Richard Jewell.
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