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December 04, 2018 at 12:23 PM EST

It’s always a raucous party at the annual Golden Globes, where a usually errant host eggs on a star-studded room flowing freely with champagne, so it’s best to prepare for the unexpected.

There’s little crossover between the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), a group of 90-plus foreign journalists who vote for the Golden Globes, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the 9,000-plus film industry voting body of the Oscars. But the Globe nominations on Thursday will offer potential Oscar contenders the highest-profile platform at the Jan. 6 Golden Globes ceremony to garner buzz and recognition on, giving those films the edge in the ongoing awards conversation.

The HFPA are known to throw some wildcard picks into the race, such as the widely panned The Tourist in 2011, so expect some surprises on Thursday. The best film and lead acting categories are split into drama and comedy/musical, allowing for a wider crop of nominees. With Roma out of the running for best drama feature (due to Globe rules dictating all contenders for best drama and comedy/music are English-language only), the race opens up between some Oscar-buzzy dramas such as A Star is Born and If Beale Street Could Talk. Meanwhile, the comedy/musical categories could be dominated by Yorgos Lanthimos’ surreal period drama The Favourite or could even see the Crazy Rich Asians or Mary Poppins edge in for an accolade. 

With the caveat that surprises are to be expected, here are some early Golden Globe nominee predictions for what the HFPA could serve up Thursday morning.

Best Supporting Actress

Matt Kennedy / Annapurna Pictures

Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Ones to Watch: Claire Foy for First Man, Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots, Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased

Dark Horses: Elizabeth Debicki for Widows, Meryl Streep for Mary Poppins Returns, Tilda Swinton for Suspiria

 

Best Supporting Actor

Universal Pictures

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Ones to Watch: Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther, Nicholas Hoult for The Favourite

Dark Horses: Daniel Kaluuya for Widows, Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman

 

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Atsushi Nishijima/Fox Searchlight

Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Ones to Watch: Charlize Theron for Tully

Dark Horses: Sandra Bullock for Ocean’s 8

 

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Annapurna Pictures

Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Dark Horses: Henry Golding for Crazy Rich Asians, Nick Robinson for Love, Simon

 

Best Actress, Drama

Clay Enos/Warner Bros.

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Ones to Watch: Julia Roberts for Ben is Back, Viola Davis for Widows, Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots, Natalie Portman for Vox Lux, Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Kindergarten Teacher

Dark Horses: Amandla Stenberg for The Hate U Give, Toni Colette for Hereditary, Jamie Lee Curtis for Halloween

 

Best Actor, Drama

Alex Bailey/Fox

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Steve Carell for Beautiful Boy

Ones to Watch: John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman, Willem Dafoe for Eternity’s Gate, Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased

Dark Horses: Hugh Jackman for The Front Runner, Clint Eastwood for The Mule, John C. Reilly for The Sisters Brothers

 

Best Director

Carlos Somonte/NETFLIX

Adam McKay, Vice
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Ones to Watch: Karyn Kusama for Destroyer, Damien Chazelle for First Man, Marielle Heller for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, Peter Farrelly for Green Book

Dark Horses: Chloe Zhao for The Rider, Jacques Audiard for The Sisters Brothers, Ryan Coogler for Black Panther, Debra Granik for Leave No Trace, John Krasinski for A Quiet Place, Jonah Hill for Mid90s

 

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

Yorgos Lanthimos/Fox Searchlight

Crazy Rich Asians
Eighth Grade
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Vice

Ones to Watch: Green Book, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Dark Horses: Paddington 2, Sorry To Bother You, Ocean’s 8, The Death of Stalin, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

 

Best Picture, Drama

Clay Enos/Warner Bros.

A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther

Ones to Watch: Bohemian Rhapsody, Beautiful Boy, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Dark Horses: The Mule, A Quiet Place, The Hate U Give

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