By Devan Coggan
Updated March 17, 2016 at 10:23 PM EDT

Tris Prior and Judy Hopps will face off at the box office this weekend, as The Divergent Series: Allegiant is set to challenge Zootopia’s hold on first place.

The third adaptation of Veronica Roth’s young adult series is headed for a debut between $30 million and $40 million, but even if Allegiant does manage to snag first place, it’s looking at a pretty steep drop from the first two Divergent movies. The original Divergent ushered in the series with $54.6 million in 2014, and Insurgent dipped only slightly to $52.3 million last year. That’s fairly similar to how The Hunger Games, Lionsgate’s other big young-adult franchise, declined over time, but it’s not exactly good news for Ascendant, the fourth and final film in the Divergent series. Ascendant is scheduled to hit theaters on June 9, 2017.

Allegiant definitely has a shot at first place, but poor reviews and franchise burnout may clear the way for Disney’s Zootopia to spend its third weekend at No. 1. Here’s how this weekend’s box office race might play out:

1. The Divergent Series: Allegiant — $35 million

Current estimates place the Shailene Woodley-starring Allegiant anywhere between $30 million and $40 million in about 3,700 theaters, which means that first place is anyone’s game. Roth’s trilogy has been box office gold in the past, but the final book was extremely divisive among fans (Lionsgate is splitting Allegiant in two, like The Hunger Games), and critics haven’t been kind to its big-screen adaptation: Allegiant has only earned an 11 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Allegiant has already opened in 45 markets, where it’s raked in an estimated $35.4 million.

2. Zootopia — $33 million

After setting Disney records with its $75 million opening, Zootopia fell a miniscule 32 percent for a second weekend of $51.4 million. As one of the best reviewed movies of the year and one of the only PG-rated options in theaters right now, Zootopia should see another tiny drop in its third weekend. (We’re also starting to get into spring break season, and kids who don’t have school could give Zootopia a boost.) A drop of about 35 percent would put Zootopia around $33 million for the weekend, which — depending on how Allegiant does — could be enough for first place. So far, Zootopia has a domestic total of $159.2 million and a global total of $479.4 million.

3. Miracles From Heaven — $12 million

Based on Christy Beam’s memoir and directed by The 33’s Patricia Riggen, the Jennifer Garner-starring faith-based drama hit theaters on Wednesday, where it brought in an estimated $1.9 million. While faith-based films can be hit-or-miss —see last weekend’s Young Messiah, which opened to $3.3 million — Sony’s Affirm label has had success in the past with low-budget dramas like Heaven is for Real (which opened in 2014 to $22.5 million) and War Room (which bowed last year to $11.4 million).

After its Wednesday debut, Miracles From Heaven should perform similarly to War Room over the weekend, with an expected opening in the low double digits. Still, Miracles From Heaven is the rare faith-based film with major box office names, as it features both Garner and Queen Latifah, and that star power, coupled with its A+ CinemaScore, could propel it even higher.

4. 10 Cloverfield Lane — $11 million

Dan Trachtenberg’s “spiritual sequel” to 2008’s Cloverfield tallied $24.7 million when it opened last weekend, and its domestic total has now reached $31.2 million. Horror movies tend to see a fairly steep drop in their second weekend, but positive buzz could help 10 Cloverfield Lane manage a drop of only about 55 percent. If so, it’s looking at a second weekend around $11 million.

5. Deadpool — $7 million

The Merc with a Mouth is now entering his sixth weekend in theaters, having racked up more than $331.9 million domestically. The Ryan Reynolds-starring superhero flick is starting to slow down, but it’s still creeping closer to the biggest R-rated movies ever: The Passion of the Christ ($370.8 million) and American Sniper ($350.1 million). This time around, Deadpool is expected to drop about 40 percent for a sixth weekend around $7 million. Its global total currently sits at $711.1 million.

10 Cloverfield Lane

  • Movie
  • PG-13
  • 113 minutes
  • Dan Trachtenberg