Even with four new wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, Zootopia will easily top the box office for the second weekend in a row.
Disney’s animated adventure set box office records last weekend when it debuted to $75.1 million, earning the biggest opening ever for a non-Pixar Disney animated film, as well as the fourth-biggest March opening weekend ever. This time around, positive word-of-mouth should put Zootopia on track for a stellar second weekend, handily beating all four newcomers.
10 Cloverfield Lane, the “spiritual successor” to the 2008 monster movie, will fare the best, easily taking second place and leaving the three other new releases to jockey for a spot in the top five. The Brothers Grimsby, The Young Messiah, and The Perfect Match are all expected to earn single-digit openings.
Here’s what this weekend’s top five might look like:
1. Zootopia — $41 million
Since opening last weekend, Zootopia has already racked up $88.7 million domestically and more than $287 million worldwide. Ginnifer Goodwin and Jason Bateman lent their voices to the animated police procedural, which has earned some of the best critical reviews of 2016. (It’s certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with a 99 percent rating.) Positive reception and a lack of other family-friendly competition should help Zootopia hold up well in its second weekend, and it should fall about 45 percent, at most.
2. 10 Cloverfield Lane — $20 million
Director Dan Trachtenberg makes his feature film debut with the mysterious 10 Cloverfield Lane, which producer J.J. Abrams has billed as a “blood relative” to the 2008 found-footage flick Cloverfield. John Goodman, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, and John Gallagher Jr. star in this tale of a woman who wakes up in a bunker, only to be told that the world outside has been rendered uninhabitable.
The original Cloverfield opened eight years ago to $40.1 million, going on to gross $80 million domestically. While 10 Cloverfield Lane isn’t expected to go that high, it’ll definitely make back its mid-teen budget in its first weekend alone: Most expectations peg 10 Cloverfield Lane around $20 million, but overwhelmingly positive reviews (and a 91 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes) could help push it even higher.
3. London Has Fallen — $10 million
The Gerard Butler-starring action epic opened last weekend behind Zootopia, debuting to $21.6 million. So far, it’s brought in $26.8 million. The original Olympus Has Fallen, which also opened in March back in 2013, fell 53 percent in its second weekend, and if London Has Fallen does the same, it’s looking at $10 million this time around.
4. Deadpool — $9 million
Ryan Reynolds’ R-rated superhero flick crossed the $300 million domestic mark last weekend, and after a month in theaters, it boasts a domestic total of $315.9 million and a global total of $679.1 million. To become the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time, it’ll have to pass American Sniper ($350.1 million) and The Passion of the Christ ($370.8 million). Now entering its fifth weekend, Deadpool should fall about 45 percent and add another $9 million or so to its total.
5. The Brothers Grimsby — $8 million
All three of the non-Cloverfield new releases are looking at a single-digit debut, but The Brothers Grimsby has a slight advantage, since it’s opening in more theaters (about 2,200). Sacha Baron Cohen stars as a football hooligan who teams up with his spy brother, and if predictions of an $8 million opening hold, The Brothers Grimsby is on track to be Cohen’s lowest box office opening yet.
Focus Features also has Cyrus Nowrasteh’s The Young Messiah, which follows a year of Jesus’ childhood, and it’s going up against some faith-based competition. Risen, the Joseph Fiennes-starring swords-and-sandals epic that opened in mid-February, is still in theaters, and next week, Patricia Riggen’s Miracles from Heaven will debut, with Jennifer Garner and Queen Latifah lending their star power. The Young Messiah is opening in 1,750 theaters with an expected debut in the single digits.
Finally, Lionsgate’s The Perfect Match is debuting in about 900 theaters, with a projected opening around $5 million. Bille Woodruff’s rom-com stars Terrence J as a playboy who reconsiders his ways when he falls in love with a mysterious woman (Cassie Ventura).