There’s a lot of new blood at the box office, with big openings from Spy, Insidious Chapter 3, and Entourage. While Entourage started the weekend early with a surprisingly strong Wednesday debut, it’s Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig’s latest comedy, Spy, that’s expected to top this weekend’s box office.
Here’s how the race might play out:
1. Spy — $35 million
With a 94-percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the latest from McCarthy and Feig has some of the summer’s best reviews — and with stars like McCarthy and Jason Statham in the cast, it should satisfy both comedy and action fans. McCarthy’s brought in some excellent box office numbers in the past, and Spy is expected to open to an estimated $35 million, putting it on par with some of her past comedies like Identity Thief ($34.6 million) and The Heat ($39.1 million).
2. San Andreas — $27.3 million
San Andreas surprised last weekend when it blew past initial estimates for a final total of $54.6 million. Brad Peyton’s earthquake hit is expected to drop about 50 percent in its second week, putting it somewhere around $27 million.
The low-budget first Insidious didn’t have a huge box office debut back in 2011, but it became a sleeper horror hit, spawning a 2013 sequel. Even though this one is billed as Chapter 3, it’s actually a prequel, and it’s missing its stars, Rose Byrne and Patrick Wilson, which could hurt its box office numbers. (You can see Byrne with a gloriously bad wig in Spy instead.) The latest Insidious installment is predicted to open somewhere between the first ($13.3 million) and second chapters ($40.3 million).
4. Entourage — $17 million
The boys are back, and they’ve already opened to a bigger-than-expected $5.4 million on Wednesday (including Tuesday previews). Even with mediocre reviews, most are expecting the film to make about $15 to $20 million this weekend, which is about what Head On, Vincent Chase’s first fictional movie, made.
5. Mad Max: Fury Road — $7.8 million
Ever since Mad Max and Pitch Perfect 2 opened the same weekend, PP2 has held a steady lead. But as both films enter their fourth week, the critically adored Max is slowly creeping up on the Barden Bellas. (It’s also taken over the internet in a way that PP2 hasn’t: mashups with Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt! Feminist Tumblrs!) While PP2 has been declining week-to-week at a much faster rate of 50 to 55 percent, Mad Max has only dropped about 45 percent each week. Max has already won a few weekday races, and if it keeps up that momentum, this could be the weekend it beats the Bellas at the box office.