While YA release Insurgent ruled the box office last week, this weekend’s biggest battle will be between two new—and completely different—films.
R-rated comedy Get Hard, starring Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart, will go up against Dreamworks’ latest animated film, Home. Both releases are hoping to attract distinctly different audiences, which should make for a tight race as the two fight for box office dominance.
Both major releases are suffering from terrible reviews, and will have to play off their star power and respective demographics to pull ahead. It Follows is also expanding to over 1,000 theaters this weekend, and the horror film, which has played well and earned plenty of buzz so far, may have a chance of sneaking into the top 5. Here’s how the weekend might play out:
1. Home — $32 million
Dreamworks’ latest animated feature may not have critical backing, but there’s been an absolute dearth of animated releases since 2015 began. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water debuted almost two months ago, and with spring breaks beginning and ending throughout the country, it’s the perfect time for an animated, family-friendly release. Add in recognizable names like Jim Parsons and Rihanna, and a marketing campaign that’s highlighted both the film’s musical focus and its vibrant color palette, and Home should take the No. 1 spot.
2. Get Hard — $28 million
A couple of years ago, a Ferrell/Hart-fronted comedy would have had a much better chance of opening in the top spot. But Hart just opened with The Ringer in January to $20 million, and Ferrell hasn’t fronted a live-action movie that opened above $30 million since 2010’s The Other Guys. Even with their combined star power, expect Get Hard to take the No. 2 spot—unless Home heavily underperforms.
3. Insurgent — $24 million
Insurgent’s final opening weekend tally actually came in under Divergent’s debut weekend, and at best the film should hope for the same week 2 drop as its predecessor. It will likely fall even a little more than that, but expect last week’s top earner to end up in the No. 3 spot.
4. Cinderella — $19 million
Cinderella held well in its second weekend, and should see a decent third weekend. While it may compete in the family market with Home, its Disney pedigree and slightly wider appeal should help Cinderella earn its spot in the top 5.
5. It Follows — $4 million
After two solid weekends in limited release, It Follows will expand much wider this weekend. With solid word of mouth and critical success, It Follows may have a chance at cracking the top 5. Unless any of the other action-oriented leftovers still in theaters (Run All Night, The Gunman, Kingsman: The Secret Service) hold surprisingly well, It Follows should see a solid placement in this weekend’s results.