By Grady Smith
Updated January 23, 2014 at 12:00 PM EST
Credit: Ben King
  • Movie

Only one new release is hitting theaters this weekend: I, Frankenstein, the Aaron Eckhart action thriller with a distinctly Van Helsing/Underworld vibe to it. Chances are, the creature feature won’t be able to lurch past Ride Along to capture a weekend win. Here’s how the box office might play out:

1. Ride Along – $21 million

The Ice Cube/Kevin Hart buddy cop comedy scored the best January opening of all time last weekend, drawing $41.5 million in its first three days (and $48.6 million over the extended holiday frame). A 50 percent drop would give it another $21 million and a scorching $75 million total.

2. Lone Survivor – $13.5 million

The SEAL story continues to click with audiences, and it’s destined to become the year’s first $100 million hit. The Mark Wahlberg hit, which earned an “A+” CinemaScore may slip by about 35-40 percent for a $13.5 million weekend and over $93 million total.

3. I, Frankenstein – $12.5 million

The Mary Shelley-inspired drama, which wasn’t screened for critics, is getting released on the same weekend as last year’s fantasy-action film Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters, which opened with $19.7 million. Despite its similarly fantastical plot, I, Frankenstein isn’t likely to open that high. The Lionsgate-distributed film, which cost $65 million to produce, hasn’t generated much buzz despite having its trailer play in front of many big movies over the past six months. Frankenstein may just be too antiquated-feeling of a character for young people to take seriously, and Eckhart isn’t a real box office draw. The film opens in 2,573 theaters, but it may only creep off with about $12.5 million.

4. The Nut Job – $11.5 million

The squirrel comedy opened well last weekend, mostly on account of being the first family option to hit screens since Frozen. Without any new competition this weekend, it should only drop by about 40 percent to $11.5 million and a total just shy of $40 million.

5. Frozen – $8.5 million

Disney’s enduring fairy tale has demonstrated remarkable strength, and another 25 percent fall will give it a $9 million weekend and about $347 million total.

Check back to EW all weekend for box office updates.

The Nut Job

  • Movie