By Grady Smith
December 05, 2013 at 12:00 PM EST

After a record-breaking Thanksgiving frame, the box office heads into the proverbial turkey-coma that is the first week of December. Only one new release, Out of the Furnace, is hitting theaters, leaving Frozen and Catching Fire to duke it out for the top spot. Which will win? Here’s how the chart may look this weekend:

1. Frozen – $34 million

Family films thrive over the Thanksgiving holiday — so much so that they’re destined to plummet in the following frame. Still, Frozen‘s glowing reception and complete lack of competition will help it maintain success for quite a while. If it falls 50 percent this weekend, it’s looking at a $34 million gross and a $136 million total.

2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – $31 million

After two weeks of gigantic grosses, Catching Fire will likely dip about 55 percent in its third weekend, giving it a still-strong $31 million and lifting its total to $341 million after 17 days. The film is still on pace to easily break the $400 million mark once students are out of school around Christmastime.

3. Out of the Furnace – $7.5 million

The sole newcomer this week is a gritty drama starring Christian Bale, Casey Affleck, and Woody Harrelson. Reviews have been mostly good, but unfortunately for distributor Relativity, buzz is not. Marketing for the rough-and-tumble picture has been markedly muddled and provided little sense of the bleak story. Still, Bale’s star power is considerable, and Furnace, which cost $22 million to make, may burn up about $7.5 million worth of tickets.

4. Thor: The Dark World – $5 million

The superhero sequel will plummet by about 55 percent to $5 million, good for a $194 million total.

5. Delivery Man – $3.8 million

Disney’s Vince Vaughn dramedy somewhat inexplicably had the best hold in the Top 10 last weekend, dropping only 14 percent. It’s bound for a steeper fall this time around, but a 40-percent decline would still give the film about $4 million for the weekend and $25 million total.