The Golden Globe nominees in the best miniseries and TV-movie categories come down to two choices with two possible spoilers. Most of the awards will go to either the first season of Downton Abbey (that TV series smuggled into this country as a miniseries) or HBO’s Mildred Pierce.

But the foreign press corps that comprises the Globe voters may also be suckers for a show few Americans watched, The Hour (the early-days-of-British-television drama). And the actor category is expansive enough to include Peter Dinklage in Game of Thrones, a regular series, and I’d never count out Dinklage’s supporting-role performance. Below, some predictions.

Best Miniseries or Motion Picture

Cinema Verite

Downton Abbey

The Hour

Mildred Pierce

Too Big to Fail

Downton Abbey is my pick to win here, although I think Pierce, with its movie-star lead and Todd Haynes direction, will exert a pull for Globes voters. Nonetheless, the popular and artistic success of Downton combines to give it a winning edge.

Best Actor in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey

Idris Elba, Luther

William Hurt, Too Big to Fail

Bill Nighy, Page Eight

Dominic West, The Hour

If the Globes are looking to split the riches among various shows, this is the category to deny Downton an award, because West’s performance in The Hour is at least as good as Bonneville’s in Abbey. West is doing something awards voters like: Seeming to forsake vanity in portraying an egotistical yet still charming protagonist.

Best Supporting Actor in TV Series, Miniseries, or Made-for-TV Movie

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Paul Giamatti, Too Big to Fail

Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce

Tim Robbins, Cinema Verite

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Here’s where Dinklage via Thrones invades the TV-movie category, and that reason alone gives him a boost. (Stonestreet in Modern Family is even an odder presence — a network sitcom actor amidst cable drama performances — but I doubt it’s enough of a novelty to give him a win.) While Pearce may well take it, I still believe Dinklage will and should be the winner.

Best Actress in a Miniseries or Made-for-TV Movie

Romola Garai, The Hour

Diane Lane, Cinema Verite

Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey

Emily Watson, Appropriate Adult

Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce

Winslet has a lock on this one, and she gave an extremely good, thoughtful, carefully modulated performance in the midst of a regularly overwrought miniseries. So that’s my prediction. Still, I wish there was some way for the Globes to acknowledge what fine work McGovern did in Abbey — work that gets even better in the second, current series.

Best Supporting Actress in TV Series, Miniseries, or Made-for-TV Movie

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story

Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Evan Rachel Wood, Mildred Pierce

How can the Globes resist Lange, going over and under the top depending on what episode of AHS you’re thinking of? I think she’ll win… that is, unless someone associated with Downton edited a clip-reel of all of Maggie Smith’s one-liners, eye-rolls, sarcastic sighs, and put-downs, which would accumulate into something irresistible.

So: Your picks to win in these categories?

Twitter: @kentucker

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Downton Abbey

The war is over, but intrigue, crisis, romance, and change still grip the beloved estate.

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