By Dave Karger
February 27, 2011 at 02:00 PM EST

Each day leading up to tonight’s 83rd Academy Awards, we’ve shared Dave Karger’s Oscar picks in a major category, as well as his prediction of how the votes will break down (based on previous awards won and conversations with insiders and Academy members). Today, we present his pick for the Best Picture Oscar. Click here to look back at his predictions for Best Director, Actor/Actress, and Supporting Actor/Actress.

Image Credit: Laurie Sparham

The King’s Speech

The good news: This year’s Best Picture race doesn’t have a dud in the bunch. From Sundance hits like The Kids Are All Right and Winter’s Bone to director-driven pieces like Black Swan, True Grit, and 127 Hours to blockbusters like Toy Story 3 and Inception, it’s a satisfying potpourri of different genres, budgets, and themes. But there are really only  three films with any chance of winning. As one of the two films with the most acting nominations this year (plus the all-important directing and editing citations), The Fighter qualifies as the scrappy underdog choice. And after virtually sweeping the critics’ prizes and earning eight overall nods, The Social Network was far and away the early favorite.  That is, until the announcement of the guild awards, whose voting bodies overlap considerably with the Academy. The King’s Speech scored the rare hat trick of guild prizes (Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild), an achievement matched by only six other films. In five of those cases, the movie went on to take the Best Picture Oscar as well. Only Apollo 13 faltered with the Academy, but that film didn’t have a Best Director nomination to its credit. So even in the later rounds of the Academy’s preferential balloting process, expect The King’s Speech, which boasts the most nominations of any film this year, to have the last word.

Vote percentage prediction:

The King’s Speech: 23 percent

The Social Network: 20 percent

The Fighter: 12 percent

Inception: 10 percent

True Grit: 10 percent

Toy Story 3: 7 percent

127 Hours: 5 percent

Black Swan: 5 percent

Winter’s Bone: 5 percent

The Kids Are All Right: 3 percent

More Oscars:

Dave Karger’s Oscar pick for Best Director

Dave Karger’s Oscar picks for Best Actor/Actress

Dave Karger’s Oscar picks for Best Supporting Actress/Actor

Oscars: Who’ll win (and who should!)

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