So many conflicting signals in the past few days. The Social Network sweeps the Broadcast Film Critics and Golden Globe Awards, but then The King’s Speech trounces it at the BAFTA nominations, which, unlike the BFCA and Globes, are from a voting body that has significant overlap with the Academy. The upshot: My No. 1 Best Picture pick is hanging by a thread. Then, after winning the BFCA and Globe for supporting actress, Melissa Leo didn’t even manage to score a BAFTA nomination. How to make sense of it all? Here are my final rankings before next Tuesday’s Oscar nominations announcement. You’ll notice I now have True Grit‘s Hailee Steinfeld getting a Best Actress nod, and I also have added Another Year‘s Lesley Manville to my supporting-actress list as well as lead actress, though I fear she may miss out on both. For a quick look at how this year’s likely Oscar contenders have fared in other major awards to date, check out my Pre-Academy Awards Scorecard.


1. The King’s Speech (last week: 1)

2. The Social Network (last week: 2)

3. The Fighter (last week: 3)

4. Inception (last week: 4)

5. Black Swan (last week: 5)

6. True Grit (last week: 6)

7. Toy Story 3 (last week: 7)

8. The Kids Are All Right (last week: 8 )

9. The Town (last week: 9)

10. 127 Hours (last week: 11)

11. Winter’s Bone (last week: 10)

12. Another Year (last week: 12)

13. Shutter Island (last week: 13)

14. Get Low (last week: 14)

15. The Ghost Writer (last week: 15)


1. David Fincher, The Social Network (last week: 1)

2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)

3. Christopher Nolan, Inception (last week: 3)

4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (last week: 4)

5. David O. Russell, The Fighter (last week: 5)

6. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (last week: 6)

7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (last week: 8 )

8. Ben Affleck, The Town (last week: 7)

9. Mike Leigh, Another Year (last week: 10)

10. Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone (last week: 9)


1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (last week: 1)

2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (last week: 2)

3. James Franco, 127 Hours (last week: 3)

4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (last week: 4)

5. Robert Duvall, Get Low (last week: 5)

6. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (last week: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (last week: 7)

8. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (last week: 8 )

9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (last week: 9)

10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (last week: 10)


1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (last week: 1)

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 2)

3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (last week: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (last week: 4)

5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (last week: 7)

6. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (last week: 5)

7. Lesley Manville, Another Year (last week: 6)

8. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 9)

9. Hilary Swank, Conviction (last week: 8 )

10. Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (last week: —)

[falling off: Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice]


1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (last week: 1)

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)

3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (last week: 4)

4. Jeremy Renner, The Town (last week: 3)

5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 5)

6. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (last week: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (last week: 7)

8. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (last week: 8 )

9. Matt Damon, True Grit (last week: 9)

10. Pete Postlethwaite, The Town (last week: —)

[falling off: Jim Broadbent, Another Year]


1. Amy Adams, The Fighter (last week: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (last week: 2)

3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (last week: 3)

4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (last week: 5)

5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (last week: 6)

6. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (last week: 4)

7. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (last week: 8 )

8. Lesley Manville, Another Year (last week: —)

9. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (last week: 7)

10. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (last week: —)

[falling off: Ruth Sheen, Another Year and Sissy Spacek, Get Low]

For more Oscar updates, follow me on Twitter (@davekarger).