OscarWatch: The Official Precursor Tally
Now all 8 of the most important pre-Oscar precursor nominees have been announced — National Board of Review, American Film Institute, Broadcast Film Critics Association, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, and Writers Guild of America. And as you’ll see from the tally below, two films, The Social Network and The Fighter, have landed on all eight lists. Here’s the final count. N.B. With the Globes, I’m only counting Best Picture, and with SAG, I’m only counting Best Cast. And I’m counting The King’s Speech among the AFI nominees since the British film received a special award from the group.
8: The Fighter (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
8: The Social Network (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
7: Black Swan (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI)
7: Inception (DGA, PGA, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
7: The King’s Speech (DGA, PGA, SAG, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR) *ineligible for WGA
5: The Kids Are All Right (PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, AFI)
5: The Town (PGA, WGA, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
5: True Grit (PGA, WGA, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
4: 127 Hours (PGA, WGA, BFCA, AFI)
4: Toy Story 3 (PGA, BFCA, AFI, NBR) *ineligible for WGA and GG Best Picture
3: Winter’s Bone (BFCA, AFI, NBR) *ineligible for WGA
1: Alice in Wonderland (GG)
1: Another Year (NBR)
1: Burlesque (GG)
1: Hereafter (NBR)
1: I Love You Phillip Morris (WGA)
1: Please Give (WGA)
1: Red (GG)
1: Shutter Island (NBR)
1: The Tourist (GG)
Judging from the above, it looks to me like we now know which films would be nominated for Best Picture if there were only five slots: The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Inception, The Fighter, and Black Swan (which, incidentally, are the five DGA nominees). But the question remains: Which film among the second tier will be left out of the Academy’s top 10? True Grit and Toy Story 3 seem like they’re in. That leaves a quartet of movies — The Town, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, and Winter’s Bone — battling for the final three places.
Check out our handy graphs of all the major categories to see how each race is shaping up.