Oscars 2010: Predicting the Best Screenplay races

Best Original Screenplay
The Odds
30%
The Hurt Locker
Mark Boal

25%
Inglorious Basterds
Quentin Tarantino

15%
The Messenger
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman

10%
A Serious Man
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

20%
Up
Pete Docter et al.

One of the toughest races to call. Quentin Tarantino’s elaborate Inglourious Basterds has a strong shot, but Mark Boal’s point-blank script for The Hurt Locker will probably benefit from the film’s overall support. Up and A Serious Man represent Pixar and the Coen brothers’ hot streaks in this race, while The Messenger‘s feat is being the only non — Best Picture nominee to manage a nod here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
40%
Up in the Air
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

15%
District 9
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

10%
An Education
Nick Hornby

15%
In the Loop
Jesse Armstrong et al.

20%
Precious
Geoffrey Fletcher

The surprise in this category is the inclusion of foulmouthed British indie In the Loop, which many voters still may not have seen. District 9, Precious, and An Education all have their fan bases (as evidenced by their films’ Best Picture nominations), but this race is likely Up in the Air‘s only real chance at a victory, so we’re going with Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s script in a walk.

• By Dave Karger