SAG Awards: Who will win?

Can there possibly be a surprise in store for us at tomorrow night’s Screen Actors Guild awards? Or will the already-established four acting front-runners win again? With Avatar not in the running for the evening’s major prize — Best Ensemble Cast — that’s the one that may end up the most interesting. Here are tomorrow’s nominees, along with my predicted winners. Who do you think will take home the trophies?

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

***Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

I’ve literally lost count of how many awards Waltz has (deservedly) won for his star turn in Inglourious Basterds. How can anyone beat him? Harrelson is the only one with any chance at all. But it’s not going to happen.

Best Supporting Actress

Penélope Cruz, Nine

Vera Farmiga,Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick,Up in the Air

Diane Kruger,Inglourious Basterds

***Mo’Nique,Precious

Another lock. As I’ve said several times this season, Mo’Nique is in a world unto herself with her devastating performance in Precious.

Best Actor

***Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Clooney and Firth are worthy opponents, but I still see the beloved Bridges walking away with the win.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

***Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Bullock has certainly been on a roll lately, with her win at the Globes and the tie with Streep at the Critics Choice Awards. But even she admitted to me after the Globes that Streep deserves to win. And she will, though not by much.

Best Cast

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Nine

***Precious

Okay, here we have a prize that’s truly up for grabs. Nine is out, and I don’t think An Education can take it either. Any of the other three could feasibly win. I’m leaning against The Hurt Locker simply because I think many voters will see it more as a feat of directing than acting. Ten of the 20 predictors assembled by Tom O’Neil over at Gold Derby are going with Basterds, which is a great guess. But I’m going against the tide and picking Precious. As we’ve seen from past winners The Full Monty, Sideways, and Slumdog Millionaire, SAG often loves a scrappy, lesser-known cast.

Who do you all think will win tomorrow? I’ll have all the winners here at OscarWatch as well as on Twitter (@davekarger).