For the last few weeks I’ve been hearing from Oscar voters that Avatar is the surest bet for a Best Picture win in March. As I’ve written here before, many Academy members are saying, even though the ballots haven’t been submitted, that the race is all but over. I’m curious as to how much this weekend’s big-ticket award ceremonies will catch the rest of the world up to this line of thinking. With all the critics-award events this past week, the talk was certainly focused on Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker, which have obliterated Avatar with 11 wins each compared to only one for Avatar. but today’s Broadcast Film Critics Association ceremony and Sunday’s Golden Globe awards should change the conversation. The question is: How much? The answer, I believe, will lie in four races: the BFCA’s Best Picture and Best Director, and the Globes’ Best Drama and Best Director. Avatar will without a doubt win one or two of those four at least. But what if it sweeps all four? I predicted Up in the Air as the Globe Best Drama winner, but increasingly I’m thinking I’m wrong.

Follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for updates on Avatar and all the big awards contenders all weekend long.

Image credit: Eric Charbonneau/Le Studio/WireImage