Whoa there, big fella. Calm down just a second. Of course, pretty much all Survivor contestants are confident they are on the path to victory when the game starts. So why should we believe Gabon’s resident grumpasaurus, Randy Bailey, when he says that he’ll win Heroes Vs. Villains? Well, he does have one distinct advantage going for him. No one — and I mean no one — is worried about him in the least. The only time his name really came up in my interviews with the cast right before the game began was when I questioned his mortal enemy Sugar about their current status, and even she didn’t seem very concerned about him. [Why Randy could be in trouble, and exclusive on location video, after the jump.]

With so many obvious targets out there, Randy could get pretty far by just keeping his nose down. And, as he told me in Samoa before the game started, that’s exactly what he plans to do. “I never thought I’d be saying this, but it is under the radar time for Randy. There are built in feuds going back a decade. I think I can sit back and cruise to the jury and then I will start playing.” He may be right, but it is easier said than done to sit back and get along with everyone once you are cold, hungry, and tired. I can’t tell you how many people have told me pre-game how they were going to be on their best behavior all season, only to then explode at someone halfway through once their bodies — and patience — stated to fail them. I was actually impressed with how Randy kept a lid on it in Gabon…for a while, at least. But then his open feud with Sugar ended up costing him. (As for his feelings now on Sugar, he says: “It’s no secret. I don’t care for Sugar much and it’s not from her gameplay. I don’t respect her as a human being. I respect her as a Survivor player way more than a human being.”)

My other concern with Randy is his social game. During my visit to the Villains camp on day 2, the entire tribe was down talking and laughing by the water — except Randy and Jerri who stayed up by the shelter. While you can only glean so much from one visit, he certainly did not seem to be jelling socially with the others. If this game becomes about how many friends you have, I think Randy is in a lot of trouble. But you can’t count him out because Randy is a very, very smart man. He has studied this game from when it first came on the air 10 years ago and he will be constantly exploring every possible angle to move himself along. Unlike some, Randy doesn’t go on Survivor to get famous or have an “adventure.” He wants to win. I just think he may have his work cut out for him.

To see Randy diss Sugar and explain why he is not actually a villain, check out the video below. (And to enjoy interviews with all the Heroes and Villains, head over to our fancy shmancy Survivor video hub.) This is the fourth in a series of daily profiles. If you missed our first three, there are links to Cirie, Boston Rob and Sugar below the video. Up tomorrow: Two-time finalist (and choke artist) Amanda Kimmell. Oh, and for Survivor scoop sent directly to you, follow me on Twitter @EWDaltonRoss. Okay, take it away, Randy…

Image Credit: Monty Brinton/CBS