By Dave Karger
Updated February 19, 2009 at 12:00 PM EST

Most OscarWatchers considered Amy Adams merely the lucky winner of the fifth Best Supporting Actress slot after the Academy placed Kate Winslet in the lead-actress race for The Reader. (I, for one, didn’t predict an Oscar nod for her, though I was glad she got it.) But in the weeks since the nominations were announced, I’ve been feeling a shift in support towards the immensely likable star. Just last night, another Academy member told me he voted for her. So now I’m trying to figure out what it all means in the supporting actress race. Does it indicate stronger support than expected for Doubt and a possible win for Viola Davis (or even Adams?). Or will Adams’ late surge result, Nader-style, in a down-the-middle Doubt split? If that’s the case, could my Penélope Cruz prediction end up coming true? Whatever happens on Sunday, I doubt this is Amy Adams’ last invitation to the Academy Awards.