We predict whether ''Benjamin Button,'' ''Mad Men,'' Dustin Hoffman, and more will take home awards this year

By Dave Karger and Lynette Rice
Updated January 02, 2009 at 05:00 AM EST

Champagne. Rumer Willis. More champagne. Oh, and some awards. The Golden Globes are back after last year’s writers’ strike basically killed the reliably wacky gathering. Expect the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to spread the wealth among several movies on Jan. 11: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Vicky Cristina Barcelona are likely to emerge victorious in their Best Picture categories. We’re going with veterans Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) and Dustin Hoffman (Last Chance Harvey) for Best Actor in a drama and comedy, respectively, while double Best Actress nominee Meryl Streep could lose twice to Revolutionary Road‘s Kate Winslet and Happy-Go-Lucky‘s Sally Hawkins. And although the supporting-actress race is a toss-up (our guess: Penélope Cruz), the only question in the supporting-actor race is who’ll accept the award for The Dark Knight‘s late Heath Ledger.

In the TV matchups, HBO nabbed 22 nods — the most of any network — even though it no longer boasts the buzzy series it did five years ago. Its psychiatrist drama In Treatment got some surprise love in the Best Drama category, but kudos-magnet Mad Men will likely prevail, just as Men‘s Jon Hamm will beat Treatment‘s Gabriel Byrne in the dramatic-actor race. Among comedies, the network’s Entourage will likely fall to NBC’s 30 Rock. So where might HBO pick up a statuette? Bet on John Adams‘ Tom Wilkinson for supporting actor, and don’t be surprised if True Blood‘s Anna Paquin plays spoiler in the dramatic-actress race.