By Dave Karger
Updated December 10, 2008 at 10:20 PM EST

Now that the New York Film Critics Circle award results are trickling in (early winners include Milk‘s Josh Brolin for Best Supporting Actor, Happy-Go-Lucky‘s Mike Leigh for Best Director, and Rachel Getting Married‘s Jenny Lumet for Best Screenplay), something very interesting has occurred: Penelope Cruz and Sally Hawkins have both won their respective acting categories from the New York and Los Angeles critics groups. In the last seven years, 11 actors have been recognized by both organizations and all 11 eleven went on to score Oscar nominations as well. Cruz has been a supporting actress front-runner for months. But have my fellow Oscar bloggers and I been underestimating Hawkins’ chances at making the final five? If so, whose Best Actress spot could Hawkins steal? Kate Winslet’s? Angelina Jolie’s? Cate Blanchett’s? Hawkins will certainly earn a Globe nod tomorrow for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, and she could beat Mamma Mia‘s Meryl Streep for the prize. We’ll see if she can land a SAG nomination on Dec. 18.

addCredit(“Cruz: Victor Bello; Hawkins: Simon Mein”)