Box Office Preview: 'Twilight' to suck up buckets of blood...and big bucks
much-anticipated movie version of Stephenie Meyer‘s smash vampire-romance
novel, hits theaters this weekend, at long last. And it’ll be huge, right?
grosses. Here — for the first time in blog form, woot! — is how I see the
weekend’s box office top five shaping up.
1. Twilight — $69
There’s no doubt that the long-awaited adaptation arrives in
that fledgling studio Summit has the marketing chops to open a blockbuster. But let’s get real. Any fair
assessment of Twilight‘s demographic
nationwide), and general zeitgeist penetration points to big, big box office.
Bigger, indeed, than HSM3‘s debut
($42 mil) or Hannah Montana‘s ($31.1
mil). Maybe even — dare I say it? — Harry
Potter big. This’ll be a fun race to watch.
2. Bolt — $41
To me, all these animated movies are indistinguishable, but
to little kids everywhere they’re…well, they’re like crack. Chances are, the
lack of a Pixar label on this CG Disney release will keep grosses well under
the $70.5 mil that The Incredibles
banked in its November opening four years ago. But hefty returns on the order
of Happy Feet‘s $41.5 mil November
premiere two years ago seem do-able, especially with this movie opening in a
record 982 digital 3-D theaters.
3. Quantum of Solace —
The latest James Bond adventure is likely to take a hit this
weekend, and its drop could be pretty steep, like 60 percent or more. Why?
Remember that it got a poor B- CinemaScore grade, meaning that its
word-of-mouth probably isn’t very good. Remember that it attracted mostly older
men, folks who can’t always be counted on to keep coming back for more.
Remember that its switch to a more Bond-as-Bourne setup may have alienated some
fans. Remember all those things (which I’ve mentioned before). And now consider
this new piece of info: After I reported that the film scored an estimated $70.4
mil on Sunday, its final figures were remarkably lower. Quantum of Solace, it turns out, only earned $67.5 last weekend. That’s still a
lot of dough, and it’s still a record bow for a 007 flick, but it also
indicates that, starting just three days after opening, the film was already starting
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa — $18 million
The animated hit (14-day domestic box office take: $120
mil-plus) managed to hold on well opposite James Bond last weekend, dropping
just 45 percent. But it’ll have a tougher fight against two youth-baiting flicks
this time around.
5. Role Models — $6
Blockbuster, schmockbuster. The Paul Rudd comedy has earned
a nice $40 mil in three weeks, making it a profitable success. In this day and
age, mere profitability is enough.
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