By Dave Karger
Updated November 04, 2008 at 12:00 PM EST
Andrew Schwartz

It’s looking like I may be in the minority in thinking that Doubt, the upcoming Meryl Streep/Philip Seymour Hoffman drama, has a good shot a scoring a Best Picture nomination. It stands in seventh place in Awards Daily and InContention‘s Best Picture polls, for instance. I understand where the naysayers are coming from: An intimate character piece, Doubt doesn’t boast the expansive production values of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Australia, or even Revolutionary Road. And with crowd-pleasers like The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire in the picture, a tougher film like Doubt could get squeezed out. But here’s why I think it may make the final five. It’s looking fairly likely that four of the film’s actors—Streep, Hoffman, Amy Adams, and Viola Davis—will earn acting nominations for their work in the movie. Since the Academy Awards began, 22 films have received four or more acting nominations. All 22 of them also made it into the Best Picture race. So for now, Doubt‘s got Oscar history on its side. But if one member of its acting quartet begins to lose momentum (Adams is probably the shakiest of the four, since her role is the least showy), then I could very easily end up being dead wrong.