Expect the heavily promoted coming-of-age comedy ''Superbad'' to open on top, easily beating Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig's ''Invasion''
Unless you’ve been living under a rock or, at the very least, haven’t been reading EW.com, you know that Hollywood is about to crown Michael Cera and Jonah Hill as the new kings of comedy. Yes, awkward pauses and chubby moptops are the flavor of August, all because of the new Judd Apatow-produced comedy Superbad, coming to theaters this weekend. While the studio is trying to keep expectations in check on this inexpensive coming-of-age comedy, their marketing spend clearly indicates they have ”giant hit” in their sights. (Besides, it doesn’t hurt to keep Apatow happy as the newly prolific comedy producer awaits the release of two more of his movies, also from the good folks at Sony.) Also in Superbad‘s favor for the long term: Outrageous comedies like these have a way of making a lot of money in a short amount of time — sometimes four or five times the opening-weekend figure. Read on to find out how Nicole Kidman’s Invasion stands up to the princes of pasty…
THE (LIKELY) TOP FIVE
Sony · R · 2,800 theaters · NEW
Yes, this movie’s about two dorks on a mission to get girls beer so they can get them drunk and then get laid. So you’d think only teenage boys should be out trying to see it. But Superbad is really for anyone who has been a high school misfit or knows one, and at its heart is about growing up and moving on. Plus, it’s got some genius lines that will turn it into an instant classic among the under-25 crowd. All those factors considered, it’s likely the movie will open up higher than Apatow’s The 40-Year-Old Virgin ($21 mil), and there’s a chance it might even match the debut of last year’s Borat ($26 million).
Weekend prediction: $24 million
Rush Hour 3
New Line · R · 3,778 theaters · 2nd weekend
So this high-brow combination of Brett Ratner, Jackie Chan, and Chris Tucker managed to open last weekend with $49 million — but I’m thinking U.S. audiences went to see this movie because it was hot out, and I’m hoping that its second weekend sees it fall 60 percent.
Weekend prediction: $20 million
The Bourne Ultimatum
Universal · R · 3,686 theaters · 3rd weekend
Now this is a movie that demands more audience. It’s going into its third week, but should not fall as steeply as it has the past two. Starring Matt Damon as the thinking man’s CIA agent, Ultimatum should only drop 45 percent its third frame, adding a significant amount of coin to its already impressive cume of $132 million.
Weekend prediction: $18 million
Warner Bros. · PG-13 · 2,776 theaters · NEW
It’s got a kick-ass trailer, but with the creepy red posters and the less-than-ebullient promotion by stars Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, Invasion doesn’t look like a movie that’s got the full support of the studio behind it. You probably know the backstory of the script rewrite, by the Wachowski Brothers, but it seems that the behind-the-scenes drama is getting more attention then the film itself.
Weekend prediction: $13 million
The Simpsons Movie
Fox · PG-13 · 3,552 theaters · 4th weekend
It’s already made $152 million, but the Simpsons family has a way of enduring. And this weekend will be no exception.
Weekend prediction: $6 million
THE OTHER NEW RELEASES
The Last Legion
Weinstein · PG-13 · 2,002 theaters · NEW
It looks like 300 meets Ben-Hur, but with no promotion and no early screenings, this historical epic — starring Colin Firth, Ben Kingsley, and the Indian superstar actress Aishwarya Rai — is clearly a dump on the part of Weinstein.
Death at a Funeral
MGM · R · 260 theaters · NEW
Peter Dinklage, Matthew Macfadyen, and Alan Tudyk star in this dysfunctional family comedy from the one and only Frank Oz (the voice behind Yoda and many Muppets including Miss Piggy).
The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters
Picturehouse · PG-13 · Limited · NEW
This documentary by Seth Gordon centers on two rival Donkey Kong players as they battle for the title of World Champion of the arcade.
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