Joshua Rich's prediction: Adam Sandler's latest will draw both men and women, to the tune of $55 mil

By Joshua Rich
Updated June 23, 2006 at 04:00 AM EDT

Cars

type
  • Movie
genre

Woe is me — Ghana just booted the U.S. out of the World Cup. Fortunately, things are looking up elsewhere. Because… he’s back! And his movie is going to be a blockbuster. No, not Superman. He’s next week. I’m talking about Adam Sandler, whose latest summer comedy, Click, from Sony and Revolution, premieres this weekend in 3,749 venues; it will easily take No. 1.

The film is as high-concept and broadly appealing as they come. As usual, Sandler plays a regular schmo whose name might as well be ”Adam Sandler.” He goes shopping one day at a Bed, Bath & Beyond, where he picks up a remote control that allows him to pause, stop, fast forward, or rewind things that happen in real life. (Sounds like something the U.S. soccer team could use right now, eh?) Apparently, high jinks involving buxom body parts and the beautiful Kate Beckinsale ensue. It’s a perfect storm of a movie, if you ask me. Sandler’s typical brand of LCD yuks will draw young men. The romantic element will keep girlfriends from putting up too much of a fight. And Beckinsale brings a devoted fanbase of vampire-movie nerds. Okay, that last group isn’t so gigantic. And critics certainly won’t be kind (though, really, when have they liked an Adam Sander movie not directed by Paul Thomas Anderson?). But a huge box office run is guaranteed: Fast forward a bit and we see that this movie will earn $210 million by the time it plays out. In the meantime, however, it’ll skip past the actor’s recent strong openings — The Longest Yard ($47.6 mil in 2005), 50 First Dates ($39.9 mil in 2004), and Anger Management ($42.2 mil in 2003) — and hit pause with $55 mil on Sunday.

Also opening: Waist Deep, an urban action crime thriller starring Tyrese Gibson. This specialized flick is from Rogue Pictures, which is the genre arm of Focus Features, which is the classics arm of Universal Pictures, which is the movie studio arm of NBC Universal, which is the entertainment arm of General Electric. So, you know, we’re talking major indie here. Anyway, this movie opens in 1,004 locations, and with few big stars and stiff competition it should do only mediocre business, in the range of $7 mil.

Holdovers dominate the rest of the marketplace — Cars, Nacho Libre, and The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift — and figuring out the fate of these movies requires little more than simple math. Cars is putting on the brakes a little stronger than Disney and Pixar would like, and it’ll drop another 42 percent in its third weekend to come in at $20 mil. Paramount’s Nacho Libre has played strong this week, adding about $3 mil per day, but it’ll face the obligatory 50 percent summer-throwaway-movie decline and earn $14 mil. And Universal’s TFATF:TD (man, I’ve been waiting to print that abbreviation all year — I’m a man of simple pleasures, you know) will drop nearly 60 percent and gross $10 mil.

But, hey, don’t get testy if I get everything wrong: It’s not like I have some special gadget that helps me see the future. Though, come to think of it, can anybody tell me where the nearest Bed, Bath & Beyond is?

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Cars

type
  • Movie
genre
mpaa
  • G
runtime
  • 116 minutes
director
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