Dave Karger's online-only prediction: Expect the hoops drama ''Glory Road'' to open with $20 million, good enough for No. 1
Credit: Glory Road: Frank Connor

A year after Coach Carter scored a $29.2 million opening over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, another uplifting sports movie will try to do the same.

Glory Road, the true story of an all-black basketball team that won the NCAA national championship in 1966, will definitely bring in legions of hoops fans. But without a leading man like Carter‘s Samuel L. Jackson, Glory — which stars Josh Lucas, a fine actor but not as big a draw — will have a hard time matching last year’s figures. Still, Glory Road should debut with $20 million over the four-day weekend.

Also premiering is the Queen Latifah comedy Last Holiday, about a woman who embarks on an extravagant European vacation after learning she has three weeks to live. Latifah has had a spotty record lately, with an equal number of hits (Bringing Down the House) and flops (Taxi), but Holiday should perform nicely, with a debut of $16 million.

The Chronicles of Narnia and Hostel will battle for third place, earning $12 million and $11 million, respectively, while the new animated film Hoodwinked, a send-up of the Little Red Riding Hood tale, should gross about $9 million in its first weekend of wide release. That leaves the period romance Tristan & Isolde, which is being marketed as a Romeo & Juliet-style love story, to open outside the top five with only $7 million.

Glory Road
  • Movie
  • 106 minutes