Skateboard dude Robb got his wish: He's goin' home -- Bruce Fretts gives odds on the remaining 10 Survivors now that the gray-matter-challenged Tommy Lee lookalike is gone

By Bruce Fretts
Updated October 25, 2002 at 04:00 AM EDT
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Robb Zbacnik: Monty Brinton/CBS
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Skateboard dude Robb got his wish: He’s goin’ home

Robb, what were you thinking, bro? ”I’m not f—in’ stupid,” the Tommy Lee lookalike claimed — though if that’s true, why was he the one chosen to sit out the ”all-mental” 21-flag immunity challenge? After his Sook Jai tribe lost, Robb made a weepy, wine-soused speech about how much he’d learned during his 18 days on a reality show.

He blathered on about what he used to think was important (”how much I make a week and getting wasted,” not necessarily in that order) and how now he felt like his tribemates were his family. Gassing on about the dad he didn’t know for 21 years, he sealed his own fate with these ill-chosen words: ”I miss him more than I miss anyone. I want to go home and tell him how much I love him.”

Much love, dude, but never, ever say ”I want to go home” on ”Survivor.” That just gives your competitors an excuse to send you there — which is exactly what Sook Jai did. That’s just one of the lessons we’ve learned during the first four go-rounds. By studying the history of ”Survivor” (as well as other ejection-based reality shows), we can figure out which of the 10 remaining players has the best shot of winning

ERIN Big boobs will only keep you afloat for so long. Just ask the buxom twosome of Sarah from ”Survivor: Marquesas” and Tonya from ”Big Brother 3.” Thus, Erin should be bounced any day now.

JAN Crazy old ladies don’t live long. Remember, the white-haired ukulele-strumming Sonja was the first person ever kicked off of ”Survivor.” With her teary funeral for an embryonic bat, Jan may have hastened her own imminent demise.

JAKE Crusty old guys live longer — but not long enough. Everybody loved Rudy and Rodger (a.k.a. ”Kentucky Joe”), but they still went home broke. Jake may hesitate before snapping a chicken’s wrinkled neck, but the land broker’s rivals sure won’t.

CLAY Too many cooks — or restaurateurs — spoil the broth. Keith Famie got burned like a pot of overdone rice on ”Survivor: The Australian Outback,” and the equally distasteful Clay will soon prove too hard to swallow as well. In short, he’s toast.

TED Just say no to crack. It was funny when Dan Aykroyd did it on ”SNL,” but the plumber’s-butt look just doesn’t cut it on ”Survivor.” A half-moon didn’t prove lucky for Big Tom on ”Survivor: Africa,” and Big Ted’s vertical smile won’t send him home happy, either.

HELEN Hell hath no fury like a woman stabbed in the back. Kelly learned this the hard way during crazy Susan’s immortal ”snake and rat” speech. Helen’s decision to sell out her alleged pal Ghandia might have bought her time in the short run, but eventually it could come back to bite her in the proverbial butt.

SHII ANN I don’t know what to say about Shii Ann, except that she seems smart and funny, and I like her. She hasn’t got a chance.

KEN We don’t need another hero. Sook Jai has already snuffed out a firefighter (Stephanie), and they won’t cop out when it comes time to knock off one of New York’s Finest, either. Even Steven couldn’t ferret out ”The Mole,” and he was an undercover officer.

BRIAN Some people are just porn losers. ”Australian Outback” also-ran Jerri parlayed her prime-time exposure into a ”Playboy” spread. Brian has kept his soft-core past in the closet, yet it’s hard to believe a ”Survivor” jury would reward someone who’s participated in such a sleazy profession. That’s right — he’s a used-car salesman.

PENNY And the meek shall inherit the earth. Lately, flying under the radar has proven the most successful reality strategy, as the bank balances of ”Survivor: Marquesas” winner Vecepia and ”Big Brother 3” champ Lisa will attest. So far, no one’s made less of an impression than Penny, and that could make her a pretty penny.

Who do you think will win ”Survivor: Thailand”?

Survivor: Thailand

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