Oliver Gettell
October 22, 2017 AT 02:34 PM EDT

Nine days before Halloween, the October box office is looking grim. Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween is on track to debut atop a sluggish weekend with an estimated $21.7 million in the U.S. and Canada, while fellow newcomers Geostorm and The Snowman are struggling to attract moviegoers.

Although the ninth installment of writer, director, and star Perry’s Madea series should meet industry projections and reportedly cost a modest $20 million to make, the sequel’s opening numbers are lagging about 25% behind the original Boo! A Madea Halloween, which bowed at No. 1 last year.

Boo 2, which finds Madea and company dodging ghosts and ghouls at a haunted campground, was shredded by critics but garnered a solid A-minus CinemaScore. Lionsgate released the film.

Chip Bergman/Lionsgate

Meanwhile, the forecast is dire for Warner Bros. and Skydance’s long-delayed disaster movie Geostorm, which reportedly cost $120 million to make and is on pace to open with about $13.3 million, putting it in the No. 2 spot.

Marking the directorial debut of Independence Day screenwriter Dean Devlin, Geostorm stars Gerard Butler as a climate scientist trying to save the world from a technologically induced weather apocalypse. Critics have savaged the movie, and unlike Boo 2 audiences seem to have agreed, giving it a weak B-minus CinemaScore.

Also turning off critics and audiences alike this weekend is Universal and Working Title’s crime thriller The Snowman, which is on track to debut at No. 8 with an estimated $3.4 million.

Based on Jo Nesbo’s Nordic noir novel of the same name, The Snowman received a dreadful D CinemaScore and is currently in the single digits on Rotten Tomatoes. Tomas Alfredson (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) directed the movie, which stars Michael Fassbender as a troubled detective who teams with a brilliant recruit (Rebecca Ferguson) to track a serial killer.

Richard Foreman, Jr./LIONSGATE

Coming in fifth place, behind holdovers Happy Death Day and Blade Runner 2049, is Sony’s new firefighter drama Only the Brave, which will gross about $6 million.

Recounting the true story of the Granite Mountain Hotshots and featuring an ensemble cast including Josh Brolin, Miles Teller, Jeff Bridges, and Taylor Kitsch, the film has garnered glowing reviews and an A CinemaScore. Joseph Kosinski (Tron: Legacy) directed the movie.

On the specialty front, Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Killing of a Sacred Deer is on track to gross an estimated $114,585 from four locations, for a per-theater average of $28,646, while Todd Haynes’ Wonderstruck is eyeing an estimated $68,762 from four locations, for a per-theater average of $17,190.

After a record-breaking September powered by the horror hit It, the past few weeks have lacked for breakout hits at the box office, particularly in the wake of Blade Runner 2049 underperforming.

According to ComScore, overall box office is down 4.8 percent year-to-date. Check out the Oct. 20-22 figures below.

1. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween — $21.7 million
2. Geostorm — $13.3 million
3. Happy Death Day — $9.4 million
4. Blade Runner 2049 — $7.2 million
5. Only the Brave — $6 million
6. The Foreigner — $5.5 million
7. It — $3.5 million
8. The Snowman — $3.4 million
9. American Made — $3.2 million
10. Kingsman: The Golden Circle — $3 million

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