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Box office preview: The Boss to battle Batman v Superman

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It’s Batman v Superman v Michelle Darnell.

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is set to face its first real box office competition this weekend, as Melissa McCarthy’s R-rated comedy The Boss hits theaters. And while Zack Snyder’s blockbuster is expected to top the box office again in its third weekend, it could be a close race.

After a record-setting $166 million opening, Batman v Superman plummeted 69 percent in its second weekend, thanks to brutal reviews and a lukewarm B CinemaScore. If it sees a similarly steep drop this weekend — or if The Boss overperforms — there’s a small chance McCarthy could take the crown.

Here’s how this weekend might play out.

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — $25.7 million

Much has been made about Batman v Superman’s steep second weekend drop. A $51.3 million second weekend is hardly chump change, but it’s a sharp decline, especially since Batman v Superman didn’t really have any competition last week. This weekend, it’ll face its first real challenger with The Boss, and if the Dark Knight and the Man of Steel don’t hold up well, they could slip to second place. To date, Batman v Superman has earned $267.7 million domestically and $701.7 million worldwide.

So far, Batman v Superman has performed fairly similarly to 2013’s Man of Steel, which fell about 50 percent in its third weekend. If Batman v Superman does the same, it’s looking at a third weekend around $26 million.

2. The Boss — $22 million

Over the last few years, Melissa McCarthy has become one of the most consistent box office performers, and she’s pulled in solid openings with comedies like Spy ($29.1 million), The Heat ($39.1 million), and Identity Thief ($34.6 million). For The Boss, which stars McCarthy as an industry mogul sent to prison for insider trading, the best box office comparison is probably her 2014 comedy Tammy, which, like The Boss, was directed by her husband Ben Falcone. And although many reviews are still pending, the ones that have been published don’t look great: The Boss currently holds a 17 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes. (Tammy earned a 23 percent.) Tammy opened to $21.6 million, and The Boss is expected to land somewhere around there, if not a little higher. The Boss cost $29 million to make and is opening in 3,481 theaters.

3. Zootopia — $15 million

Batman v Superman may not have had much staying power so far, but Zootopia sure has, earning more than $278.6 million domestically since it opened in early March. Globally, it boasts $805.6 million. As it enters its sixth weekend in theaters, it should see another slight dip of only about 25 percent, adding another $15 million to its total.

4. Hardcore Henry — $8 million

The Boss isn’t the only new release hitting theaters this weekend: STX Entertainment is releasing the innovative Hardcore Henry in about 3,000 locations. The bloody first-person action movie from director Ilya Naishuller doesn’t have any easy film comparisons, so box office predictions can be tricky, but tracking suggests an opening in the $7-9 million range. STX picked Hardcore Henry up at the Toronto International Film Festival for $10 million, and it currently holds a 66 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 — $7 million

After opening against Batman v Superman, Nia Vardalos’ sequel to her 2002 breakout hit held up extremely well in its second weekend, dropping only 37 percent. Its domestic total is now at $38.6 million, and its global total is $57 million. With little rom-com competition, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 should continue to hold up well, raking in another $7 million or so.