Welcome to post-Globe analysis day, where we pretend the decisions of 80-something foreign journalists have any bearing on how the Academy Awards will play out.
After all, the Academy’s nominations ballots were due on Friday evening, so the results of the Golden Globes have zero impact on the actual preliminary voting. And as a bellwether, the HFPA doesn’t do terribly well when it comes to the top two categories (even in years past when it used to announce its results before the Academy turned in their ballots).
According to our trusted numbers cruncher Kevin Sullivan, the Globes have correctly predicted the Academy’s Best Picture winner only 40 percent of the time. (Last year, they crowned Boyhood, and chose The Grand Budapest Hotel over Birdman in the best comedy category.) The same 40 percent success rate applies to best director. (Last year, the HFPA also went to Boyhood’s Richard Linklater.)
In the acting categories, however, the HFPA seems to have a clue. For best actor, in the past 10 years the Globes have accurately predicted the category 90 percent of the time, which bodes well for Leonardo DiCaprio. The organization is even better when it comes to Best Actress — choosing the eventual Oscar winner every year for the past 10 years. Brie Larson, get that speech ready.
In the supporting categories, the Globes gets it right for best supporting actor Oscar nine times out of 10, while it’s slightly less predictive for best supporting actress, with 70 percent accuracy. Even more encouraging news for Stallone: the winner of the Golden Globe for supporting actor has gone on to earn an Oscar nomination every year since 1975! That means there’s a decent chance that Stallone will have a second opportunity to thank Creed writer/director Ryan Coogler properly.
And it suggests that while Kate Winslet, a favorite with the HFPA, took the honors Sunday night for her role in Steve Jobs, all is not lost for Helen Mirren, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Alicia Vikander, and even Jane Fonda, should those women nab nominations when the Academy announces its picks on Thursday.
If the Globes do have any real impact in shaping the Oscar races, it’s in the matter of perception — no small thing in the industry. With Spotlight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Big Short, and Carol being shut out by the HFPA, all the media oxygen in the room is being consumed by their Globe-winning rivals. If those films rebound and land Oscar nominations on Thursday, there will be a lot of pressure on the studio awards consultants to catch up and get their casts and crews out even more then they already have.
Which means the endless array of parties will continue and expand. With this awards season so wide open, studios have been spending more then ever to win their films prestige awards. And it already seems to be taking its toll. As Matt Damon told EW last night, “Things have changed a lot since I started doing this 18 years ago. There are a lot more cocktail parties, a lot of people holding their votes over your head, telling you they are an Oscar voter,” he said. “The whole thing is rather gross.”
Sorry, Matt. With the Oscar ceremony not for another month and half, things are just getting started.