One of the scariest things about the upcoming Halloween weekend is that the holiday falls on a Saturday — the biggest movie-going day of the week — which means that box office totals are going to take a serious hit. None of this weekend’s three new releases are expected to hit double digits, which should clear the way for holdovers The Martian, Goosebumps, and Bridge of Spies to top the box office once again.
Here’s how this weekend’s box office race might play out:
1. The Martian — $10.5 million
After Goosebumps knocked it to second place two weeks ago, The Martian retook first last weekend with $15.7 million in its fourth weekend. So far, it’s made $169 million domestically and $392 million worldwide, and Ridley Scott’s sci-fi drama is eyeing first place again for its fifth weekend. It’s expected to fall about 30 to 35 percent and bring in about $10 to $11 million this Halloween.
2. Goosebumps — $9 million
Two weekends ago, the PG-rated Goosebumps debuted in first place, and it’s grossed $45.5 million domestically. But as a good chunk of its target audience will spend Saturday trick-or-treating, it should see a steeper drop of about 40 to 45 percent for a third weekend of about $9 million.
3. Bridge of Spies — $8.5 million
Steven Spielberg’s Cold War drama has held steady in third place since it debuted in mid-October, and with stellar reviews and an A CinemaScore, it held up extremely well in its second weekend, falling only 26 percent. Its domestic total is now at $35 million. Bridge of Spies is expected to fall about 25 percent this weekend and add another $8.5 million to its total.
4. Burnt — $7 million
Starring Bradley Cooper as a disgraced chef trying to get back on his feet, Burnt has earned only a 24 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and it’s eyeing a debut around $7 million — slightly under what Aloha, also starring Cooper, opened to earlier this year.
5. Our Brand Is Crisis — $6 million
Sandra Bullock has scored openings as high as $55.8 million for Gravity in 2013, but David Gordon Green’s Our Brand Is Crisis, which stars Bullock as an American political strategist working in Bolivia, is on track to open as one of the lowest debuts of her career. The adult-skewing drama has a 31 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and it’s expected to open between $6 and $7 million.
Outside of the top five, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse is also opening in wide-release. It’s the second film to play as part of Paramount’s new flexible release schedule, which attempts to shorten the window between a movie’s theatrical release and its home release. Because several major theater chains declined to participate in the flexible plan, Scouts Guide will be showing in about 1,500 theaters and is expected to earn between $2 to $4 million in its opening weekend. It currently has a 17 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension was the first film to be released under Paramount’s new plan, and last weekend, it opened to $8.1 million, the worst wide-release debut out of all six films in the found-footage horror series. But a good part of The Ghost Dimension’s lackluster opening can be attributed to the reduced theater count, and the real test of its success will come in a few weeks, when the film is released on VOD.