Like its protagonist, Ant-Man may be small (at least compared to the other box office juggernauts in the Marvel Cinematic Universe), but it’s poised for a big debut this weekend. Early tracking predicts that Ant-Man will land somewhere in the low sixties, tentatively earning the top spot. If Minions holds up better than expected (or if Ant-Man underperforms), there’s a chance that the little yellow sidekicks could take #1 two weeks in a row, but more than likely, this weekend is going to Ant-Man.
Also opening this weekend? Amy Schumer’s Trainwreck, which is eyeing a debut somewhere in the mid to high teens. While Inside Amy Schumer has been a runaway hit this year (and just landed four Emmy nominations), the big question is whether Schumer’s star power can translate to box office success.
Here are our box office predictions for this weekend:
1. Ant-Man — $62 million
That isn’t exactly the blockbuster opening we’ve come to expect from the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but an MCU movie debuting in the low sixties is actually pretty common, especially for a film introducing a new character; Captain America: The First Avenger opened to $65.1 million, and the first Thor made $65.7 million. But unless Ant-Man manages to crack $65 million this weekend, it’s still looking at one of the weakest MCU openings yet. (To be fair, it is expected to beat The Incredible Hulk, which opened in 2008 to $55.4 million. Everyone always forgets about The Incredible Hulk.)
Wherever Ant-Man ends up, a $60 million opening is hardly a disappointment, and if Ant-Man performs as expected, it’ll earn the 10th biggest debut of the year.
2. Minions — $57.9 million
After snagging the second biggest animated debut ever last weekend with $115.4 million, Minions will (probably) slip to second place. Despicable Me 2 saw a fairly standard drop of about 50 percent in its second weekend, and while Minions hasn’t been received as well critically (55 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, compared to Despicable Me 2’s 74 percent), it likely will perform similarly.
3. Trainwreck — $19 million
Schumer’s first foray into the box office is expected to land somewhere in the mid to high teens, although a few tracking services are predicting an opening in the mid twenties — or even higher. That’s about on par with other R-rated Judd Apatow comedies like The 40-Year-Old Virgin ($21.4 million) and Funny People ($22.7 million).
4. Jurassic World — $10.9 million
After breaking just about every box office record in the books, Jurassic World has finally started to fall down the charts. It’s expected to drop about 40 percent to spend its sixth weekend in the top five.
5. Inside Out — $10.6 million
Finally facing some family-friendly competition in the form of Minions, Inside Out lost its brief lead over Jurassic World last weekend, dropping to third place. If it performs as expected, it should fall about 40 percent and snag fifth place.