Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Longest Ride arrives in theaters this weekend, but likely won’t be taking the trip to the top of the box office—the No. 1 spot is reserved for Furious 7, which exceeded expectations (and broke records) by opening with $147.2 million last weekend.
Instead, The Longest Ride will be fighting with Dreamworks’ Home for a spot in the top two, while Woman in Gold—which is expanding from 258 to 1,504 theaters—will have to fight with mainstays like Cinderella and Get Hard to make it into the top five. See how it all might play out below.
1. Furious 7 — $58.9 million
Furious 7, the—you guessed it—seventh film in the franchise, debuted with $147.2 million. $147.2 million. It had the biggest opening weekend since The Hunger Games: Catching Fire premiered with $158.1 million in November 2013, and made more in one weekend than the first Fast and Furious made in its entire run.
Because of how beloved the series is, Furious 7 likely won’t slow down at the box office for quite some time—but it will probably face a big drop in ticket sales this weekend thanks to the inevitable dying down of its first weekend’s hype. Previous movies in the franchise dropped by around 60 percent between their first and second weekends, so this one might do the same.
2. Home — $17.6 million
Even though Home dropped 48 percent between its first and second weeks, it should experience a smaller drop this weekend thanks to its status as the only new, completely friendly film now in theaters.
3. The Longest Ride — $16 million
Although Nicholas Sparks movies have a dedicated fanbase, The Longest Ride doesn’t have the biggest stars—something that might hurt its ticket sales. The debut likely won’t be as weak as the last Sparks film, 2014’s The Best of Me, which opened with $10 million. But it’s also not likely to cross the $20 million mark like many of his other adaptations have in their first weekends. Forecasts predict it’ll make around $14 million, but it could be helped by the lack of the romance films currently theaters and make around $16 million—the same amount The Last Song made in 2010.
4. Get Hard — $6.4 million
Is Get Hard a good movie? Judging by reviews, no. But it is a comedy starring two big names in the genre (Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart), which is enough of a sell for people who want to go to the movies for some laughs. Its earning dropped a hefty 61 percent between its first and second weeks, but shouldn’t experience as big a decrease this time around.
5. Cinderella — $6.1 million
Cinderella continues to be a go-to for Disney lovers, and should stay in the top five for at least one more weekend thanks to potential moviegoers who still haven’t made it theaters to see the film adaptation.
Watch the trailer for The Longest Ride below: