After last week’s all-around disappointing box office numbers (the weekend finished with an overall gross of $89.3 million—the lowest number since 2015 began), this weekend should bring some profit to theaters: Cinderella and Run All Night are opening, giving both Disney and action fans something to flock to.
Although Cinderella‘s not likely to top Fifty Shades‘ $85.1 million debut—so far the biggest of the year—it should bring in both younger and older crowds looking for something in the family-friendly fantasy genre. Here’s how it might play out:
1. Cinderella — $65 million
Cinderella is a classic fairytale, the kind that’s been adapted again and again in pop culture—but it’s been years since Disney’s touched it (65, to be exact—unless you count their 1997 made-for-TV version starring Brandy and Whitney Houston). This refreshed take on the story should encourage viewers both nostalgic for the 1950 version and those curious about what a more current version can bring to the table. All this plus the tendency for Disney’s live-action films to perform well should ensure a promising debut: Maleficent, another live-action adaptation of a classic Disney film (albeit told from a new perspective) opened with $69.4 million last May, so forecasters are predicting that Cinderella should also end its first weekend somewhere in the $60 million range.
2. Run All Night — $14 million
It’s only been about two months since Liam Neeson last headlined an action film, but he’s back again with Run All Night. Theatergoers haven’t exactly been starved for an action film—Kingsman: The Secret Service is one that’s still topping the box office after four weeks in theaters—so it’s likely Run All Night won’t perform as well as Taken 3, Neeson’s last action flick that debuted with $39.2 million Jan. 9. Taken 3 also had the benefit of being part of a well-established trilogy, an association Run All Night doesn’t have. But it is the only other new film aside from Cinderella arriving in theaters this weekend, something that will work in its favor. It will probably perform somewhat in-line with A Walk Among the Tombstones, a thriller starring Neeson that premiered with $12.8 million in September.
3. Chappie — $6 million
Chappie debuted with a weak $13.3 million last weekend and won’t be helped by reviews or word-of-mouth in its second weekend: Critics are overwhelmingly unimpressed with the Neill Blomkamp film—and so are audiences. Blomkamp’s last film, Elysium, also wasn’t a hit among his fans, and dropped 54.1 percent between its first and second weekends. But that movie, at least, had the benefit of not-so-horrible reviews. With that in mind, it should drop at least 54.1 percent if not more.
4. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel — $6 million
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel—a.k.a. the first one—made $6.4 million when it was released wide in late May 2012, and dropped just 29.8 percent the next weekend. The sequel should follow suit, especially as the only new-ish, low-conflict film currently in theaters.
5. Focus — $5.4 million
After dropping 46.4 percent between its first and second weekends, Focus should continue on the same path this time around especially since it doesn’t have any direct competition opening this weekend.