The frat boys are moving in to challenge our friendly neighborhood Spider-Man for the No. 1 spot as Universal rolls out Neighbors this weekend. Starring Seth Rogen and Zac Efron, the highly anticipated comedy has a chance of outearning The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which can expect a steep drop in its second weekend in theaters.
The animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return and the wholesome Moms’ Night Out also open wide this weekend, in addition to a slew of interesting limited releases including Chef, The Double, Palo Alto, and God’s Pocket.
Here’s how things might play out:
1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 — $40 million
The first Amazing Spider-Man fell 44 percent in its second weekend in theaters, but that’s a poor metric for comparison since it opened over the Fourth of July. This one will have a greater fall, probably in the 55 percent range since the fanboys and girls likely turned out opening weekend — on par with Cap 2‘s second-weekend fall after that opened slightly higher in April. But this will probably be the final win for Spidey, domestically at least. Next weekend it’ll have to reckon with Godzilla.
2. Neighbors — $35 million
Great reviews and an appealing cast will see a strong opening for Universal’s raunchy frat-versus-family pic, which opens in 3,279 theaters this weekend. It’s also the first R-rated comedy of the summer season after a slight comedy dry spell at the theaters. In his B+ review, EW’s Chris Nashawaty wrote: “It’s a frat-house flick with more on its mind than beer, bongs, and beer bongs. It’s also a razor-sharp commentary on desperately trying to remain carefree after the burdens of adulthood have taken over.”
3. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return — $13 million
In the computer-animated musical Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, Dorothy Gale (voiced by Lea Michele) goes back to Oz to defeat the evil Jester (Martin Short) who has plans to control the land and all of her friends. Clarius Entertainment is releasing the 3-D pic in 2,641 theaters. The $70 million movie has been pretty much panned in the reviews, but there is a slight gap in new animated fare, and family audiences could help the movie open in the low teens.
4. The Other Woman — $7 million
After two strong weekends, the funny ladies of The Other Woman will see their movie fall another 50 percent in its third weekend in theaters thanks to Neighbors, which is expected to appeal more both to men and women.
5. Moms’ Night Out — $4 million
Patricia Heaton stars in Sony’s wholesome PG-rated comedy about a group of moms looking for a, well, night out, and the hapless dads who attempt to care for the children in their absence. It’s opening in only 1,044 theaters over Mother’s Day and will likely see a modest $3 million to $5 million opening.
Check back in to EW.com this weekend for estimates and analysis.