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Tony nominees -- Our predictions

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Evita Ricky Martin
Richard Termine

The Tony Awards season is heating up. The Tony administration committee met today to decide eligibility for various categories: One Man, Two Guvnors will compete for best (new) play despite a push from its producers to be considered in the less-competitive revival category (the comedy is loosely based on Carlo Goldoni’s 1743 play Servant of Two Masters). James Earl Jones will be up for Lead Actor in a Play for Gore Vidal’s The Best Man. Ricky Martin will contend as Featured Actor in a Musical even though his name is above the title of Evita. And in a real head-scratcher, Newsies sidekick Ben Fankhauser is up for Lead Actor in a Musical even though he has less stage time than Martin and not a single solo number.

But whose names will be called when Kristin Chenoweth and Jim Parsons announce the nominations this Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.? After the jump, check out our predictions in the major categories. (The awards will be handed out June 10 at the Beacon Theatre, in a Neil Patrick Harris-hosted ceremony airing on CBS.) Disagree with our picks? Well, that’s why the gods of theater (and websites) created the comments section!

Best Musical

Leap of Faith

Newsies

Nice Work If You Can Get It

Once

Newsies and Once are sure things. Nice Work is a safe bet. But the fourth slot could go to any of three shows without a lot of critical support: Ghost, Leap of Faith, or Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark.

Best Play

Clybourne Park

One Man, Two Guvnors

Other Desert Cities

Peter and the Starcatcher

The first three on this list are locks. Other plays vying for that fourth slot include The Columnist, The Lyons, and The Mountaintop.

Best Musical Revival

Evita

Follies

The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Jesus Christ Superstar

Best Play Revival

Death of a Salesman

Gore Vidal’s The Best Man

A Streetcar Named Desire

Wit

Best Actress, Musical

Jan Maxwell, Follies

Audra McDonald, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Cristin Milioti, Once

Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Bernadette Peters, Follies

In this scenario, Elena Roger fails to make the cut for Evita.

Best Actor, Musical

Danny Burstein, Follies

Raul Esparza, Leap of Faith

Jeremy Jordan, Newsies

Steve Kazee, Once

Norm Lewis, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Burstein, Jordan, Kazee, and Lewis are all sure things. The fifth slot is a showdown between four-time nominee Esparza, Matthew Broderick (Nice Work If You Can Get It), and Reeve Carney (Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark).

Best Actress, Play

Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow

Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities

Linda Lavin, The Lyons

Cynthia Nixon, Wit

This is arguably the year’s most competitive category. Nixon has the weakest claim on a nomination. Her slot could easily go to one of three others: Angela Bassett (The Mountaintop), Nicole Ari Parker (A Streetcar Named Desire), or Tyne Daly (Master Class).

Best Actor, Play

James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman

James Earl Jones, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man

John Lithgow, The Columnist

Alan Rickman, Seminar

The final nod could also go to either Stacy Keach (Other Desert Cities) or Samuel L. Jackson (The Mountaintop).

Featured Actress, Musical

Jayne Houdyshell, Follies

Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Elaine Page, Follies

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost

NaTasha Yvette Williams, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Melissa van der Schyff has received Outer Critics and Drama Desk nods for playing Clyde’s uptight sister-in-law in the short-lived Bonnie & Clyde. But if I were in charge, Lindsay Nicole Chambers would be recognized for her scene-stealing turn in the equally short-lived Lysistrata Jones.

Featured Actor, Musical

Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Michael Cerveris, Evita

Ricky Martin, Evita

Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

Martin’s chances for a nomination improve with his shift from the lead actor category, but a nomination ain’t necessarily so. For one thing, Porgy and Bess star David Alan Grier could sneak into his slot.

Featured Actress, Play

Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman

Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner

Angela Lansbury, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man

Judith Light, Other Desert Cities

Annie Parisse, Clybourne Park

Featured Actor, Play

Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors

Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman

Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

Frank Wood, Clybourne Park

Director, Play

Nicholas Hytner, One Man, Two Guvnors

Pam MacKinnon, Clybourne Park

Joe Mantello, Other Desert Cities

Mike Nichols, Death of a Salesman

Director, Musical

Jeff Calhoun, Newsies

Michael Grandage, Evita

Eric Schaeffer, Follies

John Tiffany, Once

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