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Fall TV cancellation watch 2011

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UPDATED: So far, so predictable: All the shows that have been pink-slipped were pretty much expected. (Across the nation, scores of TV critics are crowing “we told you so!”) Now comes the really tough decisions: Some new (and old) shows are still posting ratings south of a 2.0 rating (here’s looking at you, Prime Suspect), but at what point does a network start to hit bone when it makes so many painful cuts?

Let’s look at the latest, season-to-date averages in adults 18-49, the demographic of most concern to advertisers. (Note: We’ve included the averages for the shows that have already earned full-season orders. Yeah, we’re scratching our heads at some of those CW pickups, too).

2 Broke Girls (CBS): 5.1 rating, 14.2 million.

Full season pickup. This show will continue to own bragging rights as this season’s No. 1 new comedy.

New Girl (Fox): 4.5, 11.2 million.

Status: Fox was the first network to pick up a new show for a full season. (Traditionally, the networks only order the first 13 and wait to pick up the back nine after seeing the ratings.) Granted, the network won’t air any more new episodes until Nov. 1 because of baseball and The X Factor. But the comedy should survive the hiatus.

The X Factor (Fox): Wednesday, 4.2, 13.3 million; Thursday, 4.0, 12.7 million

Status: It’s been running out-of-pattern due to those pesky baseball overruns, but we don’t think this reality show is going anywhere. In fact, the numbers may rise once X Factor starts airing live shows.

Once Upon a Time (ABC): 3.9, 12.8 million. It was the highest-rated new drama series premiere of the season — bigger than ABC’s Revenge, CBS’ Person of Interest or Fox’s Terra Nova. Full season pickup

Last Man Standing (ABC): 3.5, 13.2 million.

Status: Full season pickup

Suburgatory (ABC): 3.2, 9.7 million

Full season pickup

Terra Nova (Fox): 3.0, 10 million

Status: It will not get a full season (Fox executives have confirmed that it will complete its 13-hour run in December); the question is whether the drama will get a second year for next fall. Given this week’s uptick in the ratings, we’re starting to feel a little more hope about a renewal. (But only a little.)

Person of Interest (CBS): 3.0, 14 million

Full season pickup

Revenge (ABC): 2.8, 9.8 million

Full season pickup. Good news for primetime soap fans but this show still has a lot of heavy lifting to do before ABC even thinks of renewing it for a second season.

Unforgettable (CBS): 3.0, 14 million

Full season pickup

Whitney (NBC): 2.5, 6.2 million

Full season pick up — and yet, the ratings continue to falter. Was it such a good idea to show confidence in this show so early?

Man Up! (ABC) 2.4, 7.8 million.

Status: It bowed after Last Man Standing on Tuesday, but didn’t hold onto Tim Allen’s ratings. If both shows about men and their manly manliness go down, this will go first.

Pan Am (ABC): 2.3, 9 million

Status: The period drama has been on a free fall and looks like a candidate for early cancellation. But this show seems like one that still has huge network support.

NEXT PAGE: The dark half: Charlie’s Angels, Playboy Club, Ringer, Prime Suspect and more!