The Emmy nominations will be announced tomorrow morning, and you know who’s going to do well with multiple noms? Modern Family! Mad Men! 30 Rock! Boardwalk Empire! And what shows won’t get enough of the respect they deserve? Fringe! Justified! Community! But it doesn’t take a wizard to hazard those guesses, does it? So I’m going to take a much deeper dive into speculating on just which shows will fill out the nominations in every major category. Ready? It’s a long list. I’m pretty confident about these predictions. Hold your nose and take the plunge with me.
Remember: The shows I’m about to list are the ones I think will be nominated, not the shows I wish would be nominated. You can see a gallery of my ideal “dream ballot” nominations on EW.com as well.
The Good Wife
Game of Thrones
Friday Night Lights
With no new Breaking Bad episodes airing during this voting period, Game of Thrones has a slot it can fill. And if you didn’t think this was the strongest season for Dexter, you can be sure that the show has many fans among the Emmy nominators.
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Tom Selleck, Blue Bloods
Sean Bean, Game of Thrones
I know: Why won’t they nominate Timothy Olyphant? Because he makes it look so easy, is the short answer. And every EW reader worth his or her salt wants either Chandler to win for the final Lights season, or Bean for his decisive turn on Thrones, right? Well, while I think they may make the nomination cut, consider this a Hamm versus Buscemi battle, when it comes time to vote for a winner among the Academy members.
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Bates were nominated and won? Well, no — because as good an actor as Bates is, Law isn’t a first-rate show. But if Britton or Margulies could triumph, that would be mighty fine.
Big Bang Theory
Parks and Recreation
I’d prefer to see Community take the Big Bang or Glee spot, and only in my dreams could Louis C.K.’s brilliant Louie crack the Emmy nomination process. The odd duck here is the hour-long, mood-shifting Glee, which I think might, along with shows such as Nurse Jackie and The Big C and even Entourage and Louie, benefit from a new “dramedy”-style category.
Steve Carell, The Office
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory
Rob Lowe, Parks and Recreation
Joel McHale, Community
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Showtime’s Episodes is, I predict, this year’s we’ll-show-’em-we-can-pick-something-quality-that’s-low-rated Emmy nod. And McHale is the guy who’ll be the standard-bearer for the other nominations Community deserves. I suspect Carell will eventually win; he’s terrific, and even though this wasn’t a great Office season, the sentimentality behind Carell’s final season may catapult him past Baldwin and Parsons.
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Patricia Heaton, The Middle
Laura Linney, The Big C
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
If I were in a voting booth, I’d be pulling the lever for a full-on Parks and Recreation ticket. As it is, any of these women could win and I’d be happy, they’re all that good. Except that while Linney is excellent, The Big C isn’t very funny.
Comedy, supporting actor
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Chris Colfer, Glee
Ed O’Neill! Ed O’Neill! I’m starting a grassroots O’Neill campaign. Want to join?
Comedy, supporting actress
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jane Lynch, Glee
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
I go Bowen, but in an ideal scenario, Gillian Jacobs from Community would take the Wiig slot.
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
The Colbert Report
Late Show With David Letterman
Saturday Night Live
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Is there any way Jon Stewart will not win in this category? This, despite the fact that I think, laugh for laugh, Colbert deserves it more.
The Amazing Race
Dancing With the Stars
Voice fans, be patient: This show is too new to have dented the consciousness of most Emmy voters yet. Coming off a season of renewed energy among the judging panel, I’d bet Idol has a strong chance.
Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List
What’s the hottest show in reality right now? Pawn Stars. But voters may go one of two ways: either ignore all the outdoorsy stuff and run straight into the open arms of Kathy Griffin, or head for the reality show many people know best, Deadliest Catch.
Drama, supporting actor
Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age
John Slattery, Mad Men
Michael Pitt, Boardwalk Empire
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
John Noble, Fringe
Yes, I do think it’s possible for Noble to be nominated, the most likely of any Fringe nomination.
Drama, supporting actress
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Debra Winger, In Treatment
Margo Martindale, Justified
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Martindale’s season-long turn on Justified justifies a nomination, and a win, in my opinion. Although Debra Winger was fearless in In Treatment as well…