Earlier this week, nominations for the 27th annual Television Critics Association Awards were announced. With Emmy nomination ballots not due until June 24 (nominations are announced July 14), we got to wondering what the critics’ picks could tell us about the Academy’s. After comparing the last 10 years’ worth of nominations, here are four predictions:
• When a primetime comedy makes it into the TCA’s all-encompassing Program of the Year category — which has only happened four times between 2001 and 2010 — it always earns an Emmy nomination. That means Parks and Recreation — the sole comedy in TCA’s 2011 Program of the Year category — should earn its first Emmy nod for Outstanding Comedy Series.
• The Emmy-winning Outstanding Comedy Series has been nominated in the TCA’s Outstanding Achievement in Comedy category every year for the last decade — in fact, every year since at least 1993 (which is when we stopped looking). That means, if Parks and Recreation doesn’t win the Emmy, it will likely go to one of the TCA’s other Achievement in Comedy nominees: Community, Louie, Modern Family, or Raising Hope. Either way, for the sake of this argument, if Modern Family doesn’t repeat, we’d have a first-time nominee taking home the Emmy.
• On the drama side, only twice since 2001 (in 2002 and 2003) has the Emmy-winning Outstanding Drama Series (The West Wing in both cases) not been nominated by the TCA for Outstanding Achievement in Drama. That means this year’s Emmy winner will likely come from this year’s TCA noms: Friday Night Lights, Game of Thrones, Justified, Mad Men, and The Good Wife. If Mad Men doesn’t repeat in this scenario, we’d have a first-time winner.
• Every year since 2001, at least one of the actors or actresses nominated for Individual Achievement in Drama has failed to earn an Emmy nomination — half the time, it’s been more than one. That means one of the following in this year’s category will likely get snubbed by Emmy: Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife), Margo Martindale (Justified), or Timothy Olyphant (Justified). The comedy category fares slightly better: Three times in the last 10 years, all of the TCA’s Individual Achievement in Comedy nominees have gotten nominated.