Last year, 12 of the 18 major BAFTA winners repeated with victories in their corresponding categories at the Oscars. (For instance, the BAFTAs presaged the Academy Award winners for best picture, director, supporting actor and actress, original screenplay, costume design, art direction, sound, visual effects, score, editing, and animated film.) So now that this year’s BAFTA winners have been announced, who will also score an Oscar win on Feb. 27? Let’s split the winners up into three categories: Will repeat, could repeat, and won’t repeat.
Best Picture, The King’s Speech After its sweep of the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild awards, an Oscar win is inevitable.
Best Actor, Colin Firth Duh.
Best Original Screenplay, The King’s Speech Christopher Nolan took the Writers Guild prize for Inception, but that’s only because Speech writer David Seidler wasn’t eligible.
Best Adapted Screenplay, The Social Network Aaron Sorkin is the surest winner from the critically-acclaimed Facebook drama.
Best Animated Film, Toy Story 3 No doubt about it.
Best Costume Design, Alice in Wonderland The biggest costumes usually win the Oscar too.
Best Sound, Inception It has the perfect combination of spectacle and prestige.
Best Visual Effects, Inception A complete no-brainer.
Best Director, David Fincher There’s a chance Tom Hooper will follow up his DGA trophy with an Oscar, but the more experienced Fincher should emerge victorious.
Best Actress, Natalie Portman I still think Annette Bening is within striking distance of an upset, but Portman certainly has the edge.
Best Supporting Actor, Geoffrey Rush My money’s still on Christian Bale, but if there’s a spoiler, Rush is it.
Best Score, The King’s Speech It’s a three-way race for the Oscar between Speech, Social Network, and Inception.
Best Cinematography, True Grit Barring a King’s Speech sweep, the Coen brothers’ longtime DP Roger Deakins should finally win his first Oscar.
Best Editing, The Social Network Again, unless King’s Speech runs the table, Network is the best bet.
Best Art Direction, Inception Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland crew has a great shot at edging out Inception and Speech here.
Best Supporting Actress, Helena Bonham Carter Melissa Leo isn’t the lock she once was, but if anyone can beat her, it’s Hailee Steinfeld or maybe Amy Adams.
Best Foreign Language Film, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo No chance—it wasn’t nominated.
Best Makeup, Alice in Wonderland Ditto. I still don’t understand how this film didn’t even earn a nod.
Dave on Twitter: @davekarger