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Place your bets on 2010 Emmy winners now: Lead and supporting actor in a drama

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Who’ll win the Emmys on Aug. 29? I have some theories and predictions. Earlier this week, my colleagues Michael Ausiello and Lynette Rice began our TV department guesses in the categories of lead and supporting actor in dramas. Here are my ideas; see what you think.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Jon Hamm (Mad Men)

Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights)

Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)

Hugh Laurie (House M.D.)

Michael C. Hall (Dexter)

Matthew Fox (Lost)

My prediction: Kyle Chandler wins it by a whisker with his inspirational “East of Dillon” episode entry; he’s long overdue for a trophy. His toughest competition will be Bryan Cranston, who’s great in the season finale he submitted, but I’m not sure if Emmy voters who didn’t watch the whole season will realize why this crescendo is so artistically thunderous.

The possible upsets: Matthew Fox. Because he really cranked it up into high gear for the finale of Lost, and Emmy voters may want to shower Lost with love. And Hugh Laurie has that nicely showy, I’m-going-bonkers-in-a-psych-ward, very special episode entitled “Broken” to submit.

Shoulda been contenders: Timothy Olyphant for Justified; Wendell Pierce for Treme.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

John Slattery (Mad Men)

Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)

Martin Short (Damages)

Terry O’Quinn (Lost)

Michael Emerson (Lost)

Andre Braugher (Men of a Certain Age)

My prediction: Andre Braugher in one of the surprise wins of Emmy night. Once voters get a look at some of the superlatively smart, subtle work Braugher did, I think Emmy viewers will be surprised at what they’ve been missing in not watching Men of a Certain Age regularly. O’Quinn and Emerson, both previous winners, will cancel each other out in the voting.

The possible upset: Aaron Paul. O, how my heart would sing if his work as Jesse was awarded!

Shoulda been contenders: John Noble in Fringe!! Josh Charles in The Good Wife. And it surprises me to be writing these words, but: Dax Shepard in Parenthood deserved at least a nomination, if not an award this year.

Do you agree with my picks?

Follow: @kentucker

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